A股投资策略周报：国庆前后融资变化规律及A股日历效应如何？-20250921

Group 1 - The financing trend around the National Day holiday typically shows a pattern of "contraction before the holiday and explosion after" [1][5][12] - Historical data indicates that the A-share market generally experiences a calendar effect, with a tendency for major indices to rebound after the holiday [5][14][22] - The probability of major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 rising after the National Day holiday exceeds 60% based on the past decade [5][14][22] Group 2 - Key sectors that are expected to perform well post-holiday include computer, communication, and electronics, with banks, non-bank financials, and automobiles also showing strong performance in the following weeks [5][18][21] - The financing balance has shown a significant increase, with a net inflow of 558.3 billion yuan since July, indicating that financing has become a major driving force for market growth [7][9][28] - The current financing balance reached 2.39 trillion yuan, which is above historical highs, although it still represents only 2.54% of the A-share market's circulating value [9][10][28] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is part of a preventive easing strategy, which historically leads to higher probabilities of A-share and Hong Kong stock market gains [6][25][26] - The report suggests a continued focus on growth-oriented sectors, particularly in solid-state batteries, AI computing, humanoid robots, and commercial aerospace [1][25][28]