日英似鹰非鹰陷入纠结，美联储独立性推升美元：宏观周报（第22期）-20250921

Group 1: Japan's Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) initiated a slow reduction of its ETF and REITs holdings, planning to sell ¥3.3 trillion and ¥50 billion annually, respectively, while holding ¥37.2 trillion and ¥655 billion as of August[2][12] - Japan's overall CPI and core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) in August were 2.7% and 3.3%, down by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points respectively, indicating a potential peak in inflation[2][15] - Concerns about trade environment, corporate profits, and consumer confidence suggest a low probability of the BoJ raising interest rates within the year[2][15] Group 2: UK Monetary Policy - The Bank of England (BoE) paused interest rate cuts, maintaining a rate of 4.0%, after previously cutting rates by 75 basis points in 2023[3][18] - UK inflation rates for August were 3.7% and 3.8% for overall and core CPI, respectively, remaining high despite a 0.2 percentage point decline from July[3][18] - The BoE reduced its planned bond sales from £100 billion to £70 billion over the next 12 months to avoid rapid increases in the interest rate curve[3][23] Group 3: US Economic Indicators - US retail sales in August grew by 5.0% year-on-year, a significant recovery of 0.9 percentage points from July, marking the highest growth since April[4][24] - Initial jobless claims in the second week of September fell to 231,000, down by 33,000 from the previous week, indicating a potential recovery in the labor market[4][28] - The recent tax cuts may sustain high consumer demand in the coming months, potentially boosting the labor market[4][29]