Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-21 05:55Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [3]. Core Views - The broad housing demand in China has likely bottomed out, but the volume and price have not yet entered a positive cycle. The overall real estate market is expected to continue stabilizing, with policies aimed at stopping the decline being introduced [3]. - The core cities' real estate markets are anticipated to be at the bottom turning point and will lead the recovery. The "Good House" policy is expected to create new development tracks, enhancing the market in core cities [3]. - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong product capabilities and undervalued firms, as well as second-hand housing intermediaries and property management companies [3]. Industry Data Summary New Housing Transactions - In the week of September 13-19, 2025, new housing transactions in 34 key cities totaled 2.083 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 5.4%. The year-on-year increase for September is 17.6% [4][5]. - The transaction volume for new homes in first and second-tier cities increased by 5.2%, while third and fourth-tier cities saw an increase of 8.1% [4]. Second-Hand Housing Transactions - In the same week, second-hand housing transactions in 13 key cities totaled 1.096 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 6.1%. However, the cumulative year-on-year increase for September is 31.3% [11]. Inventory and Sales - In the week of September 13-19, 2025, 15 cities launched 1.07 million square meters of new housing, with total sales of 780,000 square meters, resulting in a sales-to-launch ratio of 0.73 [19]. - The total available residential area in these cities was 89.666 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [19]. Policy and News Tracking - The State Council has officially implemented the "Housing Rental Regulations," encouraging the increase of rental housing supply through various channels [28]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to August 2025, real estate investment totaled 603.09 billion yuan, down 12.9% year-on-year, with sales area and sales amount also declining [28]. - Shanghai has optimized its property tax pilot policy, temporarily exempting certain residents from property tax for their first and second homes under specific conditions [28]. Company Dynamics - Financing activities remain active, with quality real estate companies actively distributing dividends. For instance, China Overseas Development has issued bonds with significant payouts [33]. - The SW Real Estate Index rose by 0.71%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which fell by 0.44%, indicating a stronger performance of the real estate sector compared to the broader market [38].