Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-21 05:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the industry, suggesting that the white liquor sector is in a bottoming process and that food companies should seek structural opportunities from the bottom up [2][6]. Core Insights - The industry is expected to experience a recovery in consumption scenarios as it enters the September peak season, although year-on-year sales pressure remains significant. The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring demand recovery during this peak season [2][6]. - Long-term investment value is seen in leading companies from a dividend and yield perspective, including high-end liquor brands and major consumer goods companies. The report highlights that institutional holdings are at historical lows, indicating potential for valuation recovery [2][6]. - The white liquor sector is entering a destocking phase, with expectations of continued pressure on corporate reports in Q3. The report recommends key companies such as Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao, while also monitoring Wuliangye and others [2][6][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights on Food and Beverage - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 2.53% last week, with white liquor down 2.95%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.23 percentage points [5][29]. - The report notes that the white liquor price for Moutai is 1755 RMB per bottle, down 25 RMB week-on-week, and 1770 RMB per case, down 200 RMB week-on-week [7][13]. 2. Market Performance of Food and Beverage Sectors - The food and beverage industry underperformed the Shenwan A index by 2.41 percentage points from September 15 to September 19, with white liquor lagging by 2.83 percentage points [29][30]. 3. Key Company Updates - Companies like Jiangsu's Jiuziyuan are expected to see a slight recovery in consumption scenarios in September, although the overall market remains competitive [10]. - Shuanghui Development anticipates improved sales in the second half of the year due to internal channel and product optimizations, with stable profitability in the meat products segment [10].