棉花周报：新棉上市压力，盘面偏弱震荡-20250921

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish outlook on the cotton industry, expecting short - term weak and volatile trends [5]. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities with strong expectations of a bumper harvest, which exerts pressure on cotton prices. On the other hand, the industrial chain inventory has dropped to a low level, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is at a historical low. Seasonal replenishment provides support at the bottom. It is expected to be mainly weak and volatile in the short - term, with support at around 13,500 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis and buy far - month contracts after the market drops to an appropriate level [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 01 Week - on - Week Core Points and Strategies - Supply: The 2025/26 US cotton production is 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, with the final output estimated to be between 2.85 - 3 million tons. The 2025/26 Chinese cotton production is 7.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, and there is still room for the USDA to raise its forecast [5]. - Demand: The 2025/26 Chinese cotton consumption is 8.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. Domestic downstream consumption is sluggish, but there are signs of marginal improvement in current downstream orders. As of September 19, the spinning mill operating rate is 66.6% (66.5% last week), and the weaving mill operating rate is 37.9% (38% last week) [5]. - Inventory: As of the end of August, the domestic cotton commercial inventory is 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the end of July and a year - on - year decrease of 30.9%. As of September 19, the raw material inventory available days of textile enterprises is 10.86 days (11.63 days last week), and the yarn inventory days of spinning mills is 30.4 days (30.6 days last week) [5]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of September 19, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton are 4,232, with 12 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 169,700 tons (200,600 tons on September 12) [5]. - Basis: As of September 19, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton is 15,250 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main CF2601 contract is 13,735 yuan/ton, and the Xinjiang cotton basis is 1,515 yuan/ton [5]. - Cost: The overall planting cost of self - owned land has decreased slightly. The cost of cotton planting on rented land is equivalent to a seed cotton price of 6.0 - 6.2 yuan/kg, equivalent to about 13,500 - 13,600 yuan/ton on the futures market. The overall average cost of ginning plants in the new year is expected to be 14,700 - 14,800 yuan/ton, and the opening purchase price is not expected to be high [5]. - Macro: In the US, the number of initial jobless claims last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years. Retail sales in August showed strong growth, but tariffs and a weak employment market pose downward risks. The US consumer confidence index in September continued to decline, reaching the lowest level since May. On September 17, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. In China, waiting for the Politburo meeting in October, domestic demand - side policies are continuously strengthening, which is expected to support the medium - and long - term demand for domestic cotton [5]. 3.2 02 Week - on - Week Data Charts 3.2.1 Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA) - In 2025/26, the global cotton production is 25.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%, and the total consumption is 25.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26% [9]. 3.2.2 US Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA) - In 2025/26, the US cotton production is 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, with the final output estimated to be between 2.85 - 3 million tons. Consumption is 370,000 tons, remaining flat year - on - year [10]. 3.2.3 Chinese Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA) - In 2025/26, Chinese cotton production is 7.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, and there is still room for the USDA to raise its forecast. Consumption is 8.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [11]. 3.2.4 Chinese Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (BCO) - In 2025/26, the estimated production is 7.42 million tons, close to the general expectation of 7.5 million tons. Imports are expected to increase by 34% year - on - year, different from the USDA's forecast of flat imports. Consumption is similar to the USDA data, showing a slight year - on - year decrease, not overly pessimistic. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to increase by 6.03% year - on - year [13]. Other Data - Domestic New - Year Planting: The new - year planting area has expanded, maintaining a pattern of loose supply. According to different surveys from February to June, the national planting area and Xinjiang planting area show varying degrees of year - on - year increases, while the national and Xinjiang cotton yields show different degrees of year - on - year decreases [19]. - Cotton and Yarn Imports: Cotton import volume is low, and spinning enterprises are looking forward to import quotas [21]. - Enterprise Inventories: As of September 19, the raw material inventory available days of textile enterprises is 10.86 days (11.63 days last week), and the yarn inventory days of spinning mills is 30.4 days (30.6 days last week) [27]. - Enterprise Operating Rates: As of September 19, the spinning mill operating rate is 66.6% (66.5% last week), and the weaving mill operating rate is 37.9% (38% last week) [5]. - Chinese Cotton Commercial Inventory: As of the end of August, the domestic cotton commercial inventory is 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the end of July and a year - on - year decrease of 30.9%, at a historical low [39].