Report Overview - The report focuses on the nickel and stainless steel industries, analyzing their fundamentals, inventory changes, and market news [1][2]. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel Market: The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel show that the resonance of real - world inventory accumulation and weak expectations suppresses prices, and the Indonesian nickel mine issue increases short - selling risks. The surplus in nickel is mainly in the ferronickel segment, with a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. The expected commissioning of pure nickel in the second half of the year puts pressure on prices, but the substitution of nickel plates with ferronickel in the alloy sector has increased. The marginal improvement in non - standard nickel fundamentals shows some de - stocking, but there is still a need for more pure nickel to be re - allocated or cleared to resolve the inventory accumulation contradiction. Indonesian news may significantly weaken short - sellers' confidence [1]. - Stainless Steel Market: There is a game between short - term supply - demand logic and long - term "cost - performance trading", and steel prices are oscillating. Short - term supply and demand lack drivers. The demand side has issues such as tariff contradictions and weak post - production - cycle consumption, and the supply side has adjusted production. Although the supply - demand mismatch has slightly eased, supply elasticity may limit the upside space. The cost - profit situation also restricts the downside space [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals 3.1.1 Nickel Fundamentals - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for importing copper and nickel from Russia, which may marginally weaken the import demand. The global refined nickel's visible inventory has returned to an increasing trend, with a weekly increase of 9,810 tons to 264,382 tons, and the market's expectation of implicit restocking has slowed down. The surplus in nickel is concentrated in the ferronickel segment, with a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand. The expected commissioning of pure nickel in the second half of the year puts pressure on prices, but the substitution of nickel plates with ferronickel in the alloy sector has increased, and the inventory accumulation trend may suppress nickel prices. The marginal improvement in non - standard nickel fundamentals shows some de - stocking, but more pure nickel needs to be re - allocated or cleared to resolve the inventory accumulation contradiction. Indonesian news may significantly weaken short - sellers' confidence, as over 148 hectares of a nickel mine in Indonesia have been taken over, affecting the monthly nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons. There are also other potential risks in Indonesia, such as the government's requirement for enterprises to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget in October 2025, which may limit the decline in nickel ore premiums [1]. 3.1.2 Stainless Steel Fundamentals - Short - term supply and demand lack drivers. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of demand has significantly converged compared to previous years, with the apparent demand growth rate dropping to 2.0%. The supply side experienced a "de - valuation - de - production" phase from June to July, and the year - on - year supply growth rate has also significantly converged, with the cumulative year - on - year growth rate falling to 2.4%. The reduction in production by an Indonesian steel mill has led to a 27% decline in imports, and the supply - demand mismatch has slightly eased, with the inventory centers of factories and society both decreasing. However, supply elasticity may limit the upside space, as production increased in August and is expected to continue to increase in September, with a 6% month - on - month increase to 3.45 million tons in September, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate is expected to recover to 3.2%. The 300 - series reaches 1.81 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year/ month - on - month increase of 4.8%/5.2%. Since the absolute inventory levels of the upstream and mid - stream in the real - world have not been digested to a neutral or low level, if the valuation is high, it may lead to expectations of supply elasticity release, and downstream procurement is cautious. In the short - term cost and profit segment, after the marginal return to the fundamental logic, combined with the de - stocking and valuation repair in the ferronickel segment and the increase in the chromium iron tender procurement price, steel mill profits have been squeezed, and the cash profits of non - leading steel mills from warehouse delivery have basically converged, so the cost - support logic also limits the imagination of the downside space [2]. 3.2 Inventory Changes - Nickel Inventory: China's social nickel inventory increased by 144 tons to 39,298 tons, including an increase of 1,851 tons in warehouse receipt inventory to 23,529 tons, a decrease of 737 tons in spot inventory to 11,679 tons, and a decrease of 970 tons in bonded area inventory to 4,090 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 9,666 tons to 225,084 tons [3]. - Ferronickel Inventory: On September 15, the SMM ferronickel inventory was 28,652 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14% and a year - on - year increase of 26%. The inventory pressure is high, but it is continuously easing on the margin [5]. - Stainless Steel Inventory: On September 18, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 987,082 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.51%. Among them, the total inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel was 598,806 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.17%, and the total inventory of hot - rolled stainless steel was 388,276 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.38% [5]. - Nickel Ore Inventory in Chinese Ports: The nickel ore inventory in 14 Chinese ports increased by 139,500 wet tons to 14.0011 million wet tons, including 13.4823 million wet tons of Philippine nickel ore. Classified by nickel ore grade, there are 8.1456 million wet tons of low - nickel high - iron ore and 5.8555 million wet tons of medium - and high - grade nickel ore [5]. 3.3 Market News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supplies. The government - approved 2025 RKAB production is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [6]. - Two nickel - iron smelting industrial parks in Indonesia have suspended all EF production lines due to long - term production losses, and the shutdown is expected to affect the monthly nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons [6]. - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources department requires mining and coal - mining companies to resubmit the 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [7]. - A steel mill in Shandong has started maintenance due to capacity limitations, with an annual production reduction target of 5%, and has temporarily suspended the delivery obligations under long - term supply agreements signed in August [7]. - The Indonesian president stated that illegal mining will be severely punished, and reports of 1,063 illegal mines have been received. The Indonesian forestry working group has taken over more than 148 hectares of a nickel mine in PT Weda Bay Nickel, accounting for 0.3% of the total mine area, and it is expected to affect the monthly nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons [8]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for importing copper and nickel from Russia [1][8].
镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡，不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-21 06:41