生猪：近端矛盾初启动，反套持有

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The spot price of live pigs is weakly operating, and the futures price is also in a weak state. The 9 - month supply and demand of live pigs both increase, but due to the inventory cycle turning from inventory accumulation to de - stocking and the production capacity cycle entering the incremental release stage, the probability of a weak peak season before the double festivals increases, and the spot price is still in the process of finding the bottom [2][3] - The LH2511 contract in the futures market is currently in a situation of high - capacity realization, high inventory, and high premium. It is temporarily anchored at the self - breeding and self - raising cost of 12,000 yuan/ton. Consider shorting the valuation of the May contract, and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory This Week's Market Review (9.5 - 9.21) - Spot Market: The price of live pigs is weakly operating. The price of 20KG piglets in Henan is 27.4 yuan/kg, the price of live pigs in Henan is 13.48 yuan/kg, and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide is 1,595 yuan/head, all remaining unchanged from last week. The supply is still loose, and the demand is weak. The average slaughter weight nationwide is 124.72KG, with a month - on - month increase of 0.24% [2] - Futures Market: The price of the live - pig futures LH2511 contract is weakly operating. The highest price is 13,335 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 12,770 yuan/ton, and the closing price is 12,825 yuan/ton, down from 13,255 yuan/ton last week. The basis of the LH2511 contract is 105 yuan/ton, down from 225 yuan/ton last week [2] Next Week's Market Outlook (9.22 - 9.28) - Spot Market: The spot price of live pigs is expected to operate weakly. In September, the supply pressure is large, and the demand has a seasonal increase. The inventory cycle is changing from inventory accumulation to de - stocking, and the production capacity cycle is in the incremental release stage, so the probability of a weak peak season before the double festivals increases [3] - Futures Market: The LH2511 contract is currently facing high - capacity realization, high inventory, and high premium. It is temporarily anchored at 12,000 yuan/ton. The price of piglets is expected to continue to decline, and it is considered to short the valuation of the May contract. The short - term support level of the LH2511 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,500 yuan/ton [4] Key Data - Basis and Monthly Spread: This week's basis is 105 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 - LH2601 monthly spread is - 525 yuan/ton [9] - Production and Import: In July, the pork output is 5.011 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 5.4%; the pork import is 88,300 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.18% [12]