工业硅：短期基本面存改善预期，多晶硅：情绪明显降温

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Recommended to find buying points for industrial silicon at low prices, with the expected trading range next week between 9,000 - 9,700 yuan/ton; recommended to wait and see for polysilicon, with the expected trading range next week between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [8] - Inter - delivery: Recommended to conduct inter - delivery reverse arbitrage for PS2511/PS2512 at an appropriate time [9] - Hedging: Recommended that upstream industrial silicon plants conduct selling hedging [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term supply and demand of industrial silicon have improved, and the progress of warehouse receipts should be monitored; the sentiment of polysilicon has significantly cooled down, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [7][8] 3. Summary According to Related Contents Price Trends This Week - Industrial silicon: The futures price center has risen, and the spot price has increased. The futures closed at 9,305 yuan/ton on Friday. The SMM reported that the price of 99 - grade silicon in Xinjiang was 8,800 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 200), and that in Inner Mongolia was 9,050 yuan/ton (a week - on - week increase of 150) [2] - Polysilicon: The futures price first rose and then fell, closing at 52,700 yuan/ton on Friday. The upstream spot price remained firm without price increases, and there was a small amount of restocking from downstream [2] Supply and Demand Fundamentals Industrial Silicon - Supply side: The weekly industry inventory increased slightly. The overall weekly production decreased month - on - month. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 million tons week - on - week, the social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.1 million tons [3] - Demand side: The downstream polysilicon and organic silicon sectors supported consumption. The short - term weekly production of polysilicon remained high, and there were plans for polysilicon factories to resume production next month. The organic silicon weekly production decreased slightly, and there was an expectation of self - disciplined production cuts in the future. The demand from the aluminum alloy sector was for essential orders, and the export market remained stable [4] Polysilicon - Supply side: The short - term weekly production remained high. The estimated production in September was about 127,000 tons. Some factories planned to resume production in October, and the factory inventory decreased [4] - Demand side: After the profit of silicon wafers was restored, the production increased. The short - term inventory of silicon wafers was relatively low, and the export demand for overseas batteries was good. However, the downstream had restocked for three months, and there would be no large - scale restocking in the short term [5][6] Market Charts and Data - The report presents multiple charts and data related to industrial silicon and polysilicon, including prices, inventory, production, and export and import volumes [11][13][14][23][24]