Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-21 06:35Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating that the industry is expected to outperform the overall market [12]. Core Insights - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is a major supplier of diamond resources globally, and since February 2025, it has implemented an export ban on diamond products, significantly disrupting the supply side [1][3]. - The DRC's export ban, which began on February 22, 2025, has led to a substantial decline in China's diamond imports, with volumes dropping from 1.9 thousand tons in June to 0.52 thousand tons in August, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of -61.62%, -27.26%, and -62.05% respectively [3][4]. - It is estimated that global effective diamond supply will decrease by 34% from 282,000 tons to 185,000 tons due to the DRC's export suspension lasting seven months [3]. - Demand for diamonds is expected to grow steadily, particularly in emerging sectors such as low-altitude economy and robotics, with a projected increase of 5.06% in diamond demand to 210,900 tons in 2025 [3][6]. - The price of diamonds has risen from a historical low of 159,000 yuan/ton to 277,000 yuan/ton since the DRC's export restrictions were enacted, indicating a strong upward trend in diamond prices [3][6]. Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Dynamics - The DRC's export restrictions are expected to tighten supply, leading to a forecasted diamond price increase in the short term [3]. - The DRC's government has a clear stance on controlling diamond supply, making it unlikely for export restrictions to be lifted in the near future [3]. Company Valuation - Key companies in the diamond sector include Huayou Cobalt, Tongyuan Cobalt, Luoyang Molybdenum, Liqin Resources, and Hanrui Cobalt, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated price increases [3][7].