Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Industry - No investment rating of the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - This week, the value of short - selling the offset printing paper is low, and the market will mainly move sideways. The current bearish factors have been fully priced in, and there may be short - term marginal improvements in the supply - demand situation. The price is expected to move sideways, and investors should pay attention to opportunities for buying at lows and selling at highs [54]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - The inventory days of domestic double - coated paper on Thursday this week increased by 1.01% compared to last Thursday, and the weekly increase widened by 0.14 percentage points. The market demand has not improved significantly, and paper mills are facing inventory pressure [6]. - The operating load rate of the domestic double - coated paper industry this week was 50.78%, a month - on - month increase of 0.66 percentage points, and the weekly increase narrowed by 1.24 percentage points. Some production lines in Shandong and Jiangsu have resumed normal production, but the overall increase in industry operation is limited [6]. - Chile's Arauco announced its new September pulp export prices: coniferous pulp Silver Star at $700/ton, natural pulp Venus at $590/ton, and broad - leaf pulp Star up $20/ton to $540/ton [6]. Market Trends - The average daily price of 70g high - white double - coated paper in the mainstream market on September 19 was 4,800 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.37% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.75%. The prices of some brands in some regions have declined [9][11]. - In terms of cost - profit, the pre - tax and after - tax profits of double - coated paper have decreased week - on - week [12]. Supply - Demand Data - Industry Capacity: In 2024, the domestic double - coated paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%, with an overall oversupply in the industry [17][21]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: This week, the domestic double - coated paper industry output was 170,600 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 50.8% [27]. - Sales and Inventory: This week, the domestic double - coated paper sales volume was 167,000 tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory was 359,000 tons. In August, both social and enterprise inventories showed a slight increase [32][45]. - Imports and Exports: In July, the domestic double - coated paper imports were about 12,000 tons, and exports were about 62,000 tons [39]. - Terminal Consumption: In recent years, the growth rate of retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [51]. Market Judgment - Supply: Domestic production this week was 170,600 tons with a capacity utilization rate of 50.8%. In July, imports were about 12,000 tons, maintaining a low level [54]. - Demand: Domestic sales this week were 167,000 tons. In July, exports were about 62,000 tons [54]. - Viewpoint: The futures market moved sideways last week, closing at 4,234 yuan/ton on Friday night. The spot market has shown little overall fluctuation. Although prices of some brands in some regions have weakened, the futures price is at a large discount, fully pricing in long - term bearish expectations. The supply - demand situation in the spot market may remain weak, but there may be short - term marginal improvements [54]. - Valuation: Based on the current spot price, the valuation does not provide delivery profit, and the overall valuation is low. The futures price is close to the production cost of some less - integrated enterprises [54]. - Strategy: The price will mainly move sideways. Pay attention to opportunities for buying at lows and selling at highs [54].
能源化工胶版印刷纸周度报告-20250921
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-21 06:47