螺纹钢、热轧卷板周度报告-20250921

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The demand shows a lackluster performance, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric arc furnaces [3]. - In the peak season, the demand for steel is likely to be weaker than expected. During the positive feedback stage of off - season expectations, traders are the main demanders, but they will become suppliers in the peak season, leading to greater supply pressure on steel. To keep inventory from increasing, supply needs to be reduced, which requires price drops and profit compression. Since scrap steel used in electric arc furnaces is a high - cost iron element, the production reduction rhythm of electric arc furnaces should be monitored [5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Overall Market Situation - Overseas macro: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market continued the soft - landing trading [5]. - Domestic macro: The "Qiushi" magazine republished an article on "anti - involution", including efforts to rectify the chaos of low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises, and effectively governing the "involution" hotspots in accordance with laws and regulations. Policy expectations have resurfaced [5]. - Black industry chain: The profit of steel mills is acceptable, and they maintain high production. The demand shows a seasonal rebound, and the inventory accumulation of steel slows down [12]. 2. Rebar Fundamental Data - Basis and spread: Due to the suppression of warehouse receipts, the 10 - 01 contract continued the reverse - spread logic. Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3260 (+40) yuan/ton, the 01 contract price was 3172 (+45) yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis was 88 (-5) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was - 94 (-2) yuan/ton [15][18]. - Demand: Second - hand housing transactions remained at a high level, indicating the existence of rigid demand, but new - housing transactions remained at a low level, reflecting weak market confidence. Land transaction area also remained low. The demand showed a seasonal rebound but was at a low level compared to the same period [22]. - MS weekly data: The demand may gradually bottom out, and attention should be paid to the inventory changes in the peak season. Scrap steel is still a high - cost iron element, and attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of electric arc furnaces [24][32]. - Production profit: Last week, the rebar spot profit was 153 (+48) yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 143 (-26) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 109 (-13) yuan/ton [38]. 3. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data - Basis and spread: Attention should be paid to the positive - spread. Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3420 (+20) yuan/ton, the 01 contract futures price was 3374 (+10) yuan/ton, the 01 contract basis was 46 (+10) yuan/ton, and the 10 - 01 spread was 51 (+20) yuan/ton [40][43]. - Demand: It is the seasonal peak season, and the demand rebounded month - on - month. However, the production schedules of the home - appliance and automobile industries are not good, so there is a risk that the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season may be lackluster. The export profit has opened up due to the widening of the internal - external price difference, and the export volume remains at a high level [44][46]. - MS weekly data: The demand rebounded, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory accumulated. The production of hot - rolled coils remained at a high level [48][49]. - Production profit: Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was 150 (+26) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 195 (-61) yuan/ton [54]. 4. Variety Spread Structure - Attention should be paid to the opportunities for the expansion of the cold - hot spread and the medium - plate to hot - rolled coil spread [55]. 5. Variety Regional Difference - The report provides the price differences between different regions for rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, cold - rolled coil, etc [63]. 6. Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - The report presents the seasonal data of total inventory, production, and apparent consumption for cold - rolled coils and medium - plates [69].