能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20250921

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the view on natural rubber is oscillating weakly. With the supply peak season reducing the upward momentum of raw materials, the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, and the risk - aversion sentiment of funds before the National Day is increasing. It is expected that RU will oscillate weakly [85][86]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tube production was 102.954 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. From January to August, the production was 795.467 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [5]. - In the first eight months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the export value was 114.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.6% [5]. - The eight - department work plan aims for annual automobile sales of about 32.3 million in 2025, a year - on - year increase of about 3%, with new energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million, a year - on - year increase of about 20% [6]. - Nigeria aims to contribute at least 12% of the global rubber production [7]. 3.2 Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets first rose and then fell. Japanese smoked sheets fell the most, followed by standard rubber. On September 19, 2025, the closing price of RU2601 was 15,535 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.80%; the closing price of NR2601 was 12,395 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98% [9][11]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - As of September 19, 2025, the basis of whole - milk and RU01 was - 835 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread was 5 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 125.00% [15]. - RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - SGX TSR20 spreads decreased, while the RU - JPX RSS3 spread increased [17]. - The spreads of Thai mixed - RU01, Malaysian mixed - RU01, 3L - RU01, and African No. 10 rubber - RU01 were - 805 yuan/ton, - 855 yuan/ton, - 335 yuan/ton, and - 3,194.29 yuan/ton respectively, with month - on - month increases of 4.17%, 3.93%, 35.58%, and 0.62% [20][21][22]. - The spread of whole - milk - Thai mixed decreased, while the spread of 3L - Thai mixed increased [23]. 3.4 Substitute Prices - This week, the offer price of the imported rubber market declined. The mainstream offer price of the domestic natural rubber spot market decreased. The downstream of the substitute butadiene rubber market maintained a wait - and - see attitude and purchased at low prices [20][28]. 3.5 Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU increased slightly, and the settled funds increased slightly. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR continued to decline, and the settled funds continued to decline [31]. 3.6 Supply - In Thailand, the rainfall in the southern region is slightly lower than the same period, and the rainfall in the northeastern region is at a seasonal high [36]. - In China, Yunnan and Hainan are still in the rainy season [38]. - Raw material prices are differentiated. The price of Thai cup lumps decreased, the price of Thai latex increased, and the price of Yunnan latex decreased [40]. - Thai rubber processing profits generally recovered, while Hainan concentrated latex profits were under pressure [49]. - In July, Thailand's natural rubber exports increased month - on - month, with a significant year - on - year decrease in standard rubber exports and a low year - on - year level in latex exports [52]. - In August, Indonesia's natural rubber exports to China continued to grow rapidly, with significant year - on - year and month - on - month increases in standard rubber and mixed rubber exports to China [58]. - In July, Vietnam's natural rubber exports increased seasonally, with a high year - on - year level. The exports of standard rubber and latex to China increased significantly [62]. - In August, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports were at a high year - on - year level, and the exports to China were also at a high year - on - year level [66]. - In August, China imported 5.208 million tons of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber), a month - on - month increase of 9.68% and a year - on - year increase of 5.39% [69]. 3.7 Demand - During the cycle, the capacity utilization rate of sample tire enterprises fluctuated slightly. Tire inventory rebounded slightly. In August, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high year - on - year level. In July, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks continued to recover month - on - month and year - on - year; in August, the sales volume of passenger cars increased month - on - month and year - on - year [72][75]. 3.8 Inventory - As of September 12, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory continued to decline, with an expanded decline compared to the previous period. The futures inventory of RU decreased the most, and the inventory in Qingdao continued to decline slightly [78]. - As of September 19, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 1.549 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.10%; the futures - spot inventory was 1.968 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.54% [82]. 3.9 This Week's View Summary - This week's view on natural rubber is oscillating weakly. The upward momentum of raw materials weakens during the supply peak season, the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of downstream tire factories is basically completed, and the risk - aversion sentiment of funds before the National Day is increasing. It is expected that RU will oscillate weakly. The recommended strategies are to wait and see or take a short - selling approach on rallies for single - side trading, and to observe for inter - period and inter - variety trading [85][86].