能源化工燃料油、低硫燃料油周度报告-20250921

Report Overview - Report Title: Fuel Oil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil Weekly Report - Report Date: September 21, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Kefang from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the prices of fuel oil and low-sulfur fuel oil still fluctuated, but the amplitude significantly narrowed. For high-sulfur fuel oil, Middle East exports remained high, and the spot market transaction premium in the Asia-Pacific region continued to be below 0. There is a possibility of shipments from Northwest Europe to Asia, making it difficult for the Asia-Pacific low-sulfur market price to improve. For low-sulfur fuel oil, the previous strength of the Asia-Pacific low-sulfur price has basically disappeared. The shutdown of downstream facilities in Nigeria may continue to provide support in the future, but due to high port inventories and the price difference between the domestic and foreign markets, the domestic LU futures price is unlikely to turn strongly bullish. - The estimated value range is 2650 - 2900 for FU and 3300 - 3500 for LU. - Strategies include: 1) Unilateral: The bottom support of FU is emerging, while LU is weakening marginally. 2) Inter - period: FU and LU will maintain their current structures. 3) Inter - commodity: The cracking spread of FU will fluctuate at a high level; the LU - FU spread may still contract slightly in the short term. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - Refinery Operations: Data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (crude oil: atmospheric and vacuum distillation), independent refineries, and major refineries are presented, covering the period from 2016 - 2025. [6] - Global Refinery Maintenance: Data on the maintenance volumes of global FCC, CDU, hydrocracking, and coking units are provided, spanning from 2018 - 2025. [13][14][15] - Domestic Refinery Fuel Oil Production and Commercial Volume: Data on the monthly production of fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and domestic commercial volume of fuel oil in China are shown, covering 2018 - 2025. [18] 3.2 Demand - Domestic and Foreign Fuel Oil Demand Data: Data on the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales volume of fuel oil bunkering in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [22] 3.3 Inventory - Global Fuel Oil Spot Inventory: Data on the heavy oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA, the heavy distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US are provided, covering 2018 - 2025. [25][26][28] 3.4 Price and Spread - Asia - Pacific Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in Fujairah, Singapore, and other regions are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [32][34][36] - European Regional Spot FOB Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 1% fuel oil in Northwest Europe, the Mediterranean, etc. are provided, covering 2018 - 2025. [38][39][41] - US Regional Fuel Oil Spot Prices: Data on the FOB prices of 3.5% and 0.5% fuel oil in the US Gulf, the cargo price of high - sulfur fuel oil in New York Harbor, and the price of low - sulfur straight - run fuel oil in USAC are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [44][45] - Paper and Derivative Prices: Data on the high - sulfur and low - sulfur swaps in Northwest Europe and Singapore, as well as the prices of LU and FU futures contracts, are provided, covering 2024 - 2025. [48][49][53] - Fuel Oil Spot Spread: Data on the high - and low - sulfur spread, viscosity spread, and cracking spread in Singapore, as well as the 3.5% cracking spread in Northwest Europe, are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [56][57][58] - Global Fuel Oil Paper Monthly Spread: Data on the M1 - M2 and M2 - M3 spreads of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and Northwest Europe are provided, covering 2022 - 2025. [62] 3.5 Import and Export - Domestic Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the monthly import and export volumes of fuel oil (excluding biodiesel) in China are presented, covering 2018 - 2025. [66][67] - Global High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly import and export volume changes of high - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as China, the Middle East, the US, and Russia are provided. [70][71] - Global Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Data: Data on the weekly import and export volume changes of low - sulfur fuel oil in regions such as Singapore + Malaysia, China, the US, and the Middle East are provided. [73] 3.6 Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - Review: This week, the fuel oil prices in the Asia - Pacific region generally declined, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. In terms of spreads, the domestic FU and LU were relatively stronger than the overseas market, and the premium and discount improved. - Logic: This week, the spot prices at home and abroad generally declined. Due to the high inventory in the Singapore market, the overseas spot prices were generally weak. In the domestic market, FU started to rebound from the bottom, and the internal - external spread was repaired. Similarly, for LU, because the newly issued quota decreased year - on - year, the spot supply at ports will not increase significantly in the future, so the internal - external spread of low - sulfur fuel oil also improved. [76] 3.7 FU and LU Position and Volume Changes - Data on the trading volume and open interest of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts (main contract, continuous contract, etc.) are presented, covering 2020 - 2025. [87][89][92] 3.8 FU and LU Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - Data on the warehouse receipt quantity changes of FU and LU are presented, covering 2020 - 2025. [99][100]