棕榈油：产地累库预期，回调压力逐步消化，豆油：中美贸易情绪反复，区间震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For palm oil, the fundamental drivers were temporarily sufficient last week, and the market was gradually digesting the callback pressure caused by the expected inventory build - up in the producing areas. It mainly fluctuated with the sentiment of US soybean oil and domestic commodities this week. Although there is a callback window in September, low - level long - position building for palm oil will be the main theme in the second half of the year [1][2][4]. - For soybean oil, before the fourth quarter, US soybean oil will mainly oscillate in the range of 50 - 56 cents per pound. If the policies regarding import raw material subsidy differences and redistribution are finalized, the policy negatives for US soybean oil may be exhausted. Domestic soybean oil may benefit from the rise of the soy complex after the National Day, and there will be opportunities to build long positions in soybean oil after palm oil completes its bottom - seeking oscillation in September [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic - Palm oil: The fundamental drivers were temporarily sufficient, and the market was digesting the callback pressure from the expected inventory build - up in the producing areas. The palm oil 01 contract fell 0.28% last week [1]. - Soybean oil: The market's concern about the shortage of soybeans in the fourth quarter eased. The soybean oil price had limited upward momentum, and the 01 contract fell 0.10% last week due to the lack of progress in soybean procurement in Sino - US negotiations and the weak rebound of US soybeans [1]. 3.2 This Week's Viewpoints and Logic Palm oil - Demand: European and American gasoline and diesel cracks are at a year - on - year high, and the procurement price of European SAF and UCO from China is still rising. The demand support from Europe shows no sign of ending [2]. - Supply: In September, increased rainfall may cause the monthly output to remain flat or decline. The overall output is estimated to be in the range of 1.8 - 1.85 million tons, with August likely to be the annual output peak. Indonesia's supply may experience marginal easing. The combined inventory of Indonesia and Malaysia will accumulate until October and then decline rapidly [2]. - Inventory: Malaysia's inventory in September may hover around 2.3 million tons. India's palm oil imports may be suppressed, and China's demand may not be effectively stimulated unless Malaysia's September output greatly exceeds expectations [2]. - Price: Pay attention to the domestic macro - sentiment, the support of US soybean oil at 50 - 52 cents per pound, and India's search for additional import cost - effectiveness of palm oil. Wait for the矛盾 accumulation in the fourth quarter [2][4]. Soybean oil - US soybean oil: Before the fourth quarter, it will mainly oscillate in the range of 50 - 56 cents per pound. If the policy is finalized, it will help reduce inventory and realize the expected valuation [3]. - Domestic soybean oil: It depends on the smoothness of US soybean procurement. If the Sino - US trade issue persists and causes a soybean import gap, there will be opportunities to build long positions in soybean oil [3][4]. 3.3 Disk Basic Market Data - Price: Palm oil main contract fell 0.28%, soybean oil main contract fell 0.10%, rapeseed oil main contract rose 1.66%, Malaysian palm oil main contract fell 0.47%, and CBOT soybean oil main contract fell 2.94% [6]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of various varieties showed different changes [6]. - Spreads: The spreads between different varieties and contracts showed different trends, such as the 13.36% increase in the rapeseed - soybean 01 spread [6]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of warehouse receipts for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil changed compared with last week [6]. 3.4 Core Fundamentals of Oils - Production Forecast: Malaysia's palm oil production in September is estimated to be 1.8 - 1.85 million tons [8]. - Inventory Situation: Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to increase slightly in September, and Indonesia's inventory is expected to remain low after the second quarter [8][9]. - Price - related: The FOB price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia slightly rebounded, and the fruit bunch price in North Sumatra recovered [9]. - Export Data: Malaysia's palm oil export volume from September 1 - 20 was 1,010,032 tons, an 8.7% increase compared with the same period last month [9]. - Other Indicators: The POGO spread oscillated at a high level, and the import profit of Indian palm oil was significantly lower than that of soybean and sunflower oils [9][12].