美豆周度报告-20250921

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that with a bumper harvest in South America, there is no basis for a bull market; cost support reduces the probability of a sharp decline, and the market is generally oscillating with a slight upward trend, ranging from 950 - 1150 cents per bushel [5]. - Negative factors include that the communique of the recent China - US presidential call indicates that China will not purchase US soybeans before November, the weather in the main US soybean - producing areas is favorable with high yield prospects, and the expected increase in Brazil's planting area in the 2025/26 season is 1.8% [5]. - Positive factors are that policies such as the biodiesel policy and the expectation of improved China - US relations support prices, the US soybean balance sheet is in a tight balance, and La Nina weather may delay Brazil's soybean planting [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price - This week, US soybean prices oscillated and closed lower. The China - US presidential call did not mention agricultural product procurement, and it is expected that China will be absent from the US soybean export market before the APEC meeting in November. The US soybean harvest progress has accelerated. Next week, attention should be paid to the follow - up progress of China - US negotiations, the weather conditions in the main production areas of the US and Brazil, and the progress of the biodiesel policy [8][10]. - This week, US soybean meal prices declined. The market expected that improved China - US relations would bring better export prospects for US agricultural products, but the presidential call did not mention agricultural product procurement [11][12]. - This week, US soybean oil prices oscillated lower. The draft opinion on the biodiesel exemption policy has changed, adding options that worry the market about demand prospects [15]. - As of September 12, the spot price of soybeans at US Gulf ports was $10.99 per bushel; the purchase price at farms (Iowa) was $9.73 per bushel, slightly down; as of September 18, the spot price of soybeans in south - western Iowa was $9.775 per bushel; on September 18, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, slightly decreased to 120.32 reais per bag; as of September 18, the spot price at Brazilian ports slightly decreased to 139.81 reais per bag [17][19][23][25]. Supply Factors - The drought situation in US soybean - producing areas has worsened, with a drought rate of 58% this week compared to 47% last week. In the next two weeks, the temperature in US producing areas will be warmer with no early frost threat, and there will be more precipitation in the main US soybean - producing areas. Most of the Brazilian producing areas have slightly less precipitation, the southern region is relatively humid, and the Brazilian rainy season is expected to return at the end of the month. Precipitation in Argentine soybean - producing areas is normal to high, and sowing is expected to start in October. As of September 12, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 63%, down from 64% last week and the same as the same period last year [28][30][32][34][36][39]. Demand Factors - As of September 12, the US soybean crushing profit was $3.14 per bushel, up from $3.08 last week. The weekly US soybean export volume was 837,100 tons, up from 640,000 tons last week; the weekly export inspection and quarantine volume was 804,300 tons, up from 467,600 tons last week; the net sales for this year were 923,000 tons, down from 1,389,400 tons last week; the sales for the next year were 2,200 tons, down from 1,074,000 tons last week; the quantity shipped to China last week was 0 tons [42][44][46][48][50][52]. Other Factors - The latest ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) value is - 0.905, entering the La Nina range. The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US have decreased. As of September 16, the net long position of soybeans in CFTC was 14,400 lots, compared with a net short position of 4,100 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 35,000 lots, up from 17,500 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 59,400 lots, compared with a net short position of 56,700 lots last week [55][57][63][65][67].