Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-21 08:13Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the investment value of the non-bank financial sector, particularly in the brokerage and insurance segments, suggesting a favorable investment environment moving forward [4][5]. Core Insights - The brokerage sector has shown resilience despite recent adjustments, with a projected double-digit year-on-year profit growth for Q3 2025. The report highlights that the fundamentals of the brokerage sector remain strong, with continued capital inflow and a significant increase in trading volumes [4][7]. - The insurance sector is experiencing a temporary decline, attributed to previous overperformance and a lack of internal catalysts. However, the report emphasizes the long-term investment potential, especially with the recent capital movements and the ongoing trend of insurance capital entering the A-share market [4][9]. - The report anticipates new policy measures from the upcoming State Council meeting on September 22, which could provide additional support to market confidence and stability [4][16]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4501.92 with a slight decline of 0.44%. The non-bank index fell by 3.66%, with the brokerage and insurance sectors reporting declines of 3.51% and 4.76%, respectively [7][9]. Non-Bank Sector Data - As of September 19, 2025, the average daily trading volume in the stock market was approximately 25,181.36 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.23% week-on-week. The margin trading balance reached 24,024.65 billion yuan, up 28.8% from the end of 2024 [15][32]. Key Announcements - Ping An Life has increased its stake in China Pacific Insurance (H) to over 10%, indicating strong confidence in the insurance sector's investment value. The report suggests that this move reflects a broader positive outlook among insurance companies regarding their peers [4][20]. - China Pacific Insurance announced the completion of its convertible bond issuance, which is expected to enhance its capital structure and support future growth [4][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on three main investment lines within the brokerage sector: top-tier institutions benefiting from improved competitive dynamics, firms with significant earnings elasticity, and those with strong international business capabilities [4][9]. - In the insurance sector, the report suggests maintaining positions in major players like China Life, China Pacific, and Ping An, given their current undervaluation and potential for recovery [4][9].