国泰君安期货锡周报-20250921

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tin market has no prominent contradictions, and the price is in the range of 267,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton, with a neutral strength analysis [3] - In the short term, tin prices may rebound, but from a fundamental perspective, opportunities to short tin at high levels should be considered [5] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was -$124/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 400 yuan/ton [9] - Overseas premiums declined, with premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan narrowing [14] 3.1.2 Spread - This week, the tin inter - month structure changed from structure B to structure C [18] 3.1.3 Inventory - This week, domestic social inventory increased by 936 tons, and futures inventory decreased by 844 tons [24] - LME inventory decreased by 115 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio dropped to 4.57% [29] 3.1.4 Capital - As of this Friday, the settled capital for Shanghai tin was 1,498,340,000 yuan, and the capital flow in the past 10 days was in an outflow direction [34] 3.1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai tin declined slightly, while the open interest increased slightly [36] - This week, the trading volume of LME tin declined slightly, and the open interest continued to decline [42] 3.1.6 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin declined slightly [47] 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In May 2025, the tin concentrate output was 5,961 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.56%; in July 2025, the import volume was 10,278 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.79%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 32.32% [51] - This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 12,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan/ton. The import profit - and - loss level of tin ore rebounded slightly [52] 3.2.2 Smelting - In July 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,940 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.09% [57] - This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 29%, a slight increase from last week [59] 3.2.3 Import - In July 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 2,167 tons, exports were 1,673 tons, and the net import was 393 tons. Among them, the tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 812 tons. The latest import profit - and - loss was - 16,622 yuan/ton [62] 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Products, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption Volume - In July 2025, the apparent consumption volume of tin ingots was 16,434 tons, and the actual consumption volume was 15,572 tons [70] 3.3.2 Tin Products - This week, the downstream processing fees declined slightly, and the operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in April declined slightly. The production and sales volumes of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in May declined slightly [73] 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In July 2025, the output of end - user products varied. The performance of household appliances was weak, with a general month - on - month decline. The output of integrated circuits, mobile phones, and computer整机 decreased month - on - month and was at a historically low level [80] - In July 2025, the consumption of household appliances and new energy declined month - on - month [82] - This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, which was in sync with the performance of tin prices [87]