铸造铝合金产业链周报-20250921

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength - weakness analysis of the casting aluminum alloy industry is neutral [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of casting aluminum alloy showed a volatile and weak trend with a phased decline. With the callback of aluminum prices, the willingness of scrap aluminum traders to ship increased, and the market circulation improved marginally. The operating rate of the recycled aluminum industry continued to rise month - on - month, but there was obvious internal differentiation. The demand continued a mild recovery, and the pre - holiday inventory - building demand of downstream enterprises provided some support for the orders of recycled aluminum plants. It is expected that the price of casting aluminum alloy will maintain a high - level volatile trend [6]. - As of September 19, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingot factories and social inventory increased by 0.09 million tons to 13.22 million tons compared with the previous week, and the inventory pressure remained high. The supply shortage of raw materials persisted, and the domestic automobile sales in the second week of September decreased year - on - year. However, the "trade - in" policy had a prominent effect, and the fourth batch of funds would be issued in October as planned, which was conducive to stabilizing consumer confidence and boosting automobile consumption. With the arrival of "Golden September and Silver October", the automobile sales were expected to improve month - on - month [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End - Quantity and Price - The report presents the price differences (AD00 - 01, AD01 - 02, AD02 - 03), capital precipitation, trading volume, and open interest of casting aluminum alloy [9]. 3.2 Transaction End - Arbitrage 3.2.1 Inter - period Positive Spread Cost Calculation - The report calculates the cost of inter - period positive spread for casting aluminum alloy, including fixed costs (such as delivery and transaction fees) and floating costs (such as storage fees and capital costs). The total cost is 77 yuan/ton [12]. 3.2.2 Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The market actual spot quotation fluctuates around the Baotai price. The calculated total cost of spot - futures arbitrage is 20,614.5 yuan/ton, including costs such as storage fees, capital costs, and registration costs [13][14]. 3.3 Supply End - Scrap Aluminum - The production of scrap aluminum is at a high level, and the social inventory is at a medium - high level in history. The import of scrap aluminum is also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate. The refined - scrap price difference shows a trend of decline [16][21][26]. 3.4 Supply End - Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been raised, and the price difference between recycled and primary aluminum has converged significantly. The regional price difference of casting aluminum alloy has strengthened and shows certain seasonal laws. The weekly operating rate of casting aluminum alloy has increased, while the monthly operating rate has decreased slightly. The monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy and its proportion in different regions are also presented. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and it is currently above the break - even line. The factory inventory of casting aluminum alloy has decreased, while the social inventory is at a historical high. The import window of casting aluminum alloy is temporarily closed [33][38][43]. - The production and inventory of recycled aluminum rods are also analyzed. The production and its proportion in different regions are provided, as well as the factory inventory and its proportion [62][63][64]. 3.5 Demand End - Terminal Consumption - The production of fuel - powered vehicles is at a low level, which has an impact on die - casting consumption. The report also presents the production data of new energy vehicles, motorcycles, and household appliances, as well as the year - on - year change of PPI for auto parts and the monthly value of the automobile inventory warning index [69][70].