纯苯、苯乙烯周报-20250921

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the content. 2. Report's Core View - The market fluctuates between anti - involution and crude oil price movements, with the industry's long - short sentiment remaining in a stalemate. Styrene's high - start in the peak season fails to reduce inventories, and there is increasing pressure on hard - rubber finished product inventories and external warehouses. Pure benzene's four downstream sectors are reducing their operations and entering a weakening phase. In the short term, the market will mainly be volatile [80]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene 3.1.1 Supply - Domestic pure benzene: The average monthly maintenance loss from August to September is 60,000 tons. New device production is weak overall, with production pressure concentrated from August to September (50,000 - ton increase in August and 100,000 - ton increase in September). The spot pressure of major pure benzene producers emerged in August [3][80]. - Imported pure benzene: Low imports in August led to relatively low port inventories. September imports are expected to be 400,000 - 430,000 tons, and imports are expected to rise in the fourth quarter, with an expected 500,000 - ton import in October. The external market still has large supply pressure [3][80]. 3.1.2 Demand - Styrene: There were few maintenance works in August, and the devices are operating at high capacity. From August to October, new styrene devices will be put into operation, with a monthly increase of about 20,000 - 30,000 tons. The high - supply pressure persists, and the entire styrene industry chain faces significant inventory pressure [3][80]. - Caprolactam: A 300,000 - ton new device in Hengyi Guangxi Qinzhou is planned to be put into operation from August to September. Recently, caprolactam plants increased their loads, but the inventories of CPL and PA6 products are high. Factories in Shandong and South China maintain high raw - material inventories [3][80]. - Phenol: New 400,000 - ton and 200,000 - ton devices of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Jilin Petrochemical were put into operation from July to August, and Shandong Ruilin plans to start production in October. High - volume production continues [3][80]. - Aniline: Jinmao Aluminum, Shandong Huatai, and Jiangsu Fuqiang recently restarted, and Wanhua Chemical (Fujian)'s new device has been put into operation. Yantai Wanhua plans maintenance from August to September. Aniline production is approaching its limit, and downstream MDI production is increasing. Leading enterprises still have room to replenish inventories and can absorb the increase in pure benzene production [3][80]. - 3S hard rubber downstream of styrene: In the peak season, there are high production, high inventory, and moderate profits. The core issue is how to solve the problem of high external and factory inventories [3][80]. 3.1.3 Valuation - Absolute price valuation: Based on a crude oil price of $65, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,800 - 5,900 yuan/ton. With the expected weakening of crude oil, the lowest valuation of BZ2603 is adjusted down to 5,550 yuan/ton [3][80]. - EB processing fee: Given the high port styrene inventory and high downstream raw - material inventory, the reasonable styrene processing fee is 1,000 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Positions that previously squeezed profits are being closed, and unexpected maintenance may be less than expected [3][80]. 3.1.4 Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term volatility, medium - term bearish [3][80]. - Inter - period: Styrene backwardation [3][80]. - Inter - variety: None currently [80]. 3.2 Styrene 3.2.1 Production and Inventory - In the first half of 2025, global styrene production contracted. Currently, styrene has high inventory, moderate profits, and high production [52][54]. 3.2.2 Downstream Market - ABS: Production continues to increase. The industry faces issues such as inventory and market price fluctuations [67]. - PS: Production and profit margins show certain trends, with attention to inventory and price changes [69][70]. - EPS: Production and profit margins also have their own characteristics, and capacity utilization and inventory levels are of concern [74][79].