铅产业链周度报告-20250921

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The increase in recycled lead and the marginal improvement in demand will support lead prices. The price is expected to be in the range of 16,900 - 17,500 yuan/ton, with a neutral strength analysis [3][6]. - For unilateral trading, it is recommended that existing long positions be held, while new long positions should be taken with caution as the upside potential of prices is limited by the increase in recycled lead supply. For spread trading, the short - term improvement in consumption may lead to inventory reduction, so the Shanghai lead term positive spread can be held temporarily [6]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect: Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Price: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract last week was 17,150 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.65%, and the closing price of the night session yesterday was 17,125 yuan/ton, with a night - session decrease of 0.15%. The price of LmeS - lead3 was 1,989.5, with a decrease of 1.46% [7]. - Spread: The LME lead spread decreased by 2.56 to - 43.72, the Shanghai 1 lead spot spread increased by 15 to - 15, and the recycled lead - primary lead spread decreased by 50 to - 75 [7]. - Inventory: Domestic lead inventory increased slightly from 67,000 tons on September 11th to 67,600 tons on September 18th. The Shanghai lead 10 - contract long - to - inventory ratio is high, and the spot discount continues to narrow [6]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract last Friday was 35,975 lots, a decrease of 27,454 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 32,743 lots, a decrease of 19,445 lots from the previous week [7]. 3.2 Lead Supply: Lead Concentrate, Waste Batteries, Primary Lead, and Recycled Lead - Lead Concentrate: The processing fee of lead concentrate has weakened. The spot import TC of 60% grade lead concentrate dropped to - 100 US dollars/ton this week, and the operating rate of primary lead smelting enterprises is under pressure [6]. - Primary Lead and Recycled Lead: The production of primary lead is under pressure, with smelters in Henan under continuous maintenance and a smelter in Qinghai about to start maintenance. The profit of recycled lead enterprises has improved from loss to profit, and some enterprises in Anhui, Hubei and other regions have resumed production [6]. 3.3 Lead Demand: Lead - Acid Batteries and End - Users - Lead - Acid Batteries: The consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has increased seasonally. Dealers are actively picking up goods, the inventory of finished products in some battery factories has improved, and large - scale lead - acid battery enterprises have increased raw material procurement [6]. - End - Users: The report does not provide detailed information on end - users, but the improvement in lead - acid battery consumption may be related to the demand from industries such as automobiles and motorcycles [46].