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碳酸锂:储能需求强劲,偏强震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-21 08:50

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures contracts showed a strong - running trend this week. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the strong demand in the domestic energy - storage market, although demand may slow down temporarily after the pre - National Day replenishment ends [1][3] - The price of the futures main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to conduct arbitrage, and it is suggested to carry out selling hedging for inventory later [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends - This week, the lithium carbonate futures contracts showed a strong - running trend. The 2511 contract closed at 73,960 yuan/ton, up 2,800 yuan/ton week - on - week; the 2601 contract closed at 74,040 yuan/ton, up 2,780 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price rose 1,050 yuan/ton to 73,500 yuan/ton [1] - The SMM spot - futures basis (2511 contract) fell 1,750 yuan/ton to - 460 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quote was - 255 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2511 - 2601 contract spread was - 80 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Raw Materials: In September, the shipments of Australian mines and Chilean lithium salts increased. In the first three weeks of August and September, Australian mines shipped 213,000/238,000 tons, and Chilean lithium salts shipped 17,000/20,000 tons [2] - Supply: The weekly output continued to increase and reached a record high of 20,363 tons. The output before the shutdown of sub - standard plants was 19.98 million tons. The output of spodumene, salt lakes, and recycling effectively made up for the reduction in mica output [2] - Demand: Benefiting from the capacity - based electricity price compensation, the domestic energy - storage market exceeded expectations in terms of volume. In August, the energy - storage winning bids reached 25.8 GW, a year - on - year increase of 520%. In September, the lithium - battery output is expected to be 168.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 5%, including 130.1 GWh of LFP, a 6% month - on - month increase, and 32.8 GWh of ternary batteries, a 2% month - on - month increase. The 3C consumer end also exceeded expectations [2] - Inventory: The weekly lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 137,500 tons. The upstream inventory dropped to an absolute low, while the downstream inventory increased to an absolute high. The number of futures warehouse receipts increased to 39,484 tons [2] 3.3 Market Outlook - The demand in the domestic energy - storage market far exceeds market expectations. Although the lithium - salt output has exceeded the level before the shutdown of sub - standard plants, the social inventory continues to decline, and the price trend shows a strong - fluctuating pattern. After the pre - National Day replenishment ends and the rush - buying demand before September 30 due to the subsidies of the US "Big and Beautiful" Act comes to an end, the demand is expected to slow down temporarily but still remain strong [3] 3.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral Trading: The price of the futures main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [4] - Inter - period Trading: The basis strengthens slightly, but the increase in warehouse receipts is obvious. Arbitrage is not recommended [4] - Hedging: As the basis is gradually repaired, it is recommended to conduct selling hedging for inventory later [5]