能源化工短纤、瓶片周度报告-20250921

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - fiber: In the short - term, it is a volatile market, and in the medium - term, it is weak. In September, the supply and demand are both strong. With low prices, the replenishment support is strong, but the cost support is insufficient, showing a unilateral volatile and weak trend. The recommended strategy is to hold the inter - period positive spread [7]. - Bottle chips: The cost support is insufficient, showing a volatile and weak trend. In September, the supply increases while the demand decreases. The low - price procurement support is strong, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the future. The recommended strategy is to go long on TA and short on PR in the far - month contract [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Short - fiber (PF) 1.1 Valuation and Profit - The current spot premium is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton, which is relatively high; the disk processing fee is 970 yuan/ton, and the processing fee and inter - month spread valuations are basically reasonable, while the basis is high [7]. 1.2 Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory's average operating rate has slightly increased to 95.4%, and the spinning direct - spun polyester staple fiber operating rate is 98%. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 93% - 95% in the future [7]. - Demand: In the second half of the week, when the price dropped to a low level, downstream procurement increased. The short - fiber inventory decreased, with the 1.4D equity inventory at 7.8 days and the physical inventory at 18 days. In September, the downstream operating load increased month - on - month, and each link was in the trend of seasonal inventory reduction [7]. 1.3 Strategy - Unilateral: None - Inter - period: Hold the inter - period positive spread - Cross - variety: None [7] 2. Bottle chips (PR) 2.1 Valuation and Profit - The spot processing fee is 450 yuan/ton, and the processing fees of the October and November disk contracts are 400 - 420 yuan/ton, all of which are over - estimated [8]. 2.2 Fundamental Operation - Supply: The factory maintains production cuts, with the operating rate at around 81%. The new Fuhai plant is expected to be put into operation in late October or at the end of the month [8]. - Demand: Domestically, the beverage factory's operating rate has dropped to around 85%. The inventory of bottle - chip factories has slightly decreased to 14.5 days. The export volume is expected to maintain at around 600,000 tons in August and September [8]. 2.3 Strategy - Unilateral: None - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: Go long on TA and short on PR in the far - month contract [8] 3. Cost and Raw Materials - PTA: It is operating weakly, and the warehouse receipts are continuously flowing out [35] - MEG: The subsequent supply pressure will increase month - on - month [44] - Cost and profit: The cost has decreased, and the profit has been repaired. The polymerization cost has dropped to around 5400 yuan/ton, and the bottle - chip processing fee is oscillating at a high level [46] 4. Inventory - Polyester factories' overall PTA inventory has increased, and the domestic polyester bottle - chip factory inventory has slightly decreased to around 14.5 days. It is expected to have a slight inventory accumulation in September [50][55] 5. Device Changes - In September, about 400,000 tons of the planned 1,000,000 - ton device will resume production. Some factories are maintaining production cuts, and new devices such as Fuhai are expected to be postponed [56] 6. Demand - Beverage consumption from January to August 2025 is weaker year - on - year. However, there are still many new beverage factory production lines to be put into operation. The demand for edible oil is neutral, and the demand for sheet materials is driven by the expansion of ready - to - drink beverages in the sinking market and the take - away war [63][67][72] 7. Export - In July 2025, the export volume of polyester bottle chips and slices increased year - on - year. The main export destinations are Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe. There are anti - dumping policies and investigations in some countries [82][84][93] 8. Supply - demand Balance Sheet - In September 2025, it is in a tight balance to a slightly inventory - accumulating state, and the pressure will increase in the future. The supply assumption is that mainstream factories maintain production cuts, and new devices will be put into operation. The demand assumption is that downstream demand will increase by 5% year - on - year during the peak season, and the export volume will maintain at around 600,000 tons [94][96]