Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals and the market resonate, leading to an oscillating and slightly upward trend in the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese alloys [3][5][6]. Summary by Directory Overall Situation of Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - This week, the continuous high demand and rising cost of alloys pushed the price center slightly higher. The HeSteel tender price exceeded market expectations. In the short - term, the resonance of fundamentals and sentiment drove the alloy prices to move in an oscillating and slightly upward manner [5]. - Domestically, in August, the M2 - M1 gap in China narrowed by 0.4 percentage points, reaching a four - year low, indicating an increase in capital activation. Overseas, the Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to adjust the weak employment market, which was in line with market expectations [5]. - After the military parade, steel mills resumed production, and the molten iron output recovered, supporting the demand for raw materials. The rising cost center provided short - term support for alloy prices [5]. Ferrosilicon - Supply: This week's ferrosilicon output was 113,100 tons, with a weekly production rate of 34.84%, remaining unchanged from last week. Factories maintained high - load production, and there were still plans to start furnaces in the future [54][59]. - Demand: - Steel - making demand: The production of downstream steel mills remained at a high level. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.35%, up 0.17 percentage points from last week, and the daily average molten iron output was 241,020 tons, up 4,700 tons from last week [66]. - Non - steel demand: In August, the stainless - steel crude steel output was 2.9028 million tons, up 78,700 tons month - on - month and down 2.25% year - on - year. In September, the stainless - steel crude steel production plan increased by 4.4% month - on - month. In August, the total output of magnesium metal was 69,500 tons, up 1.4% month - on - month and 5.58% year - on - year. In July, the ferrosilicon export volume was 35,900 tons, up 3.52% month - on - month [67][68]. - Inventory: - As of September 19, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises was 63,390 tons, down 6,550 tons week - on - week. - The number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 17,628, up 1,163 week - on - week, equivalent to 88,140 tons of inventory, with a weekly increase of 5,815 tons. - In August, the average available days of steel mills' ferrosilicon inventory were 14.67 days (+0.42 days) [74]. - Price and Profit: - This week, the ferrosilicon 2511 contract fluctuated, closing at 5,736 yuan/ton, up 128 yuan/ton week - on - week. The trading volume was 1,126,280 lots, and the open interest was 211,764 lots, down 6,200 lots week - on - week [8]. - This week, the spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions continued to rise. The aggregated quotation of 75B ferrosilicon in main production areas was 5,280 - 5,430 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of 70 - 120 yuan/ton [9]. - The weekly on - screen profit was 367.50 yuan/ton, up 33.39% week - on - week and 353.70% year - on - year. The weekly spot profit was - 18.50 yuan/ton, up 77.58% week - on - week and 81.68% year - on - year [4]. Silicomanganese - Supply: - This week's silicomanganese output was 208,775 tons, down 5,355 tons from last week, with a week - on - week change rate of - 2.6%. The weekly operating rate was 45.68%, down 1.7 percentage points from last week [17]. - Supply in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia decreased. Inner Mongolia had furnace shutdowns for maintenance, and some factories in Ningxia reduced production loads [5]. - Demand: - Steel - making demand: The production of downstream steel mills remained at a high level. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 90.35%, up 0.17 percentage points from last week, and the daily average molten iron output was 241,020 tons, up 4,700 tons from last week. The silicomanganese demand was weakly stable [23]. - In July, the silicomanganese export volume was 2,400 tons, up 106.36% month - on - month and 79.90% year - on - year [4]. - Inventory: - As of September 19, the number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 60,676, down 764 week - on - week, equivalent to 303,380 tons of inventory, with a warehouse - receipt de - stocking of 3,820 tons. - In August, the average available days of steel mills' silicomanganese inventory were 14.98 days (+0.74 days). - As of September 19, the inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises was 198,900 tons, up 32,100 tons from a week ago [29][30][33]. - Price and Profit: - This week, the silicomanganese 2601 contract fluctuated, closing at 5,964 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton week - on - week. The trading volume was 986,446 lots, and the open interest was 334,501 lots, up 8,931 lots week - on - week [8]. - This week, the aggregated quotation range of silicomanganese in major regions was 5,580 - 6,020 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of 0 - 270 yuan/ton [9]. - The weekly on - screen profit was 218.34 yuan/ton, up 341.84% week - on - week and down 25.56% year - on - year. The weekly spot profit was - 15.66 yuan/ton, up 88.19% week - on - week and 86.34% year - on - year [4]. Manganese Ore - Price: Overseas mining companies' quotations were stable on the whole. Some companies' prices increased slightly, and the port inquiry atmosphere was active. The port quotations of various manganese ore varieties in Tianjin Port were firm [37][38]. - Output and Arrival: - The global manganese ore departure volume decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a relatively high historical level. - The manganese ore arrival volume decreased month - on - month. Before the holiday, restocking might lead to a continued increase in port clearance [40][46].
硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告：硅铁、锰硅产业链周度报告-20250921
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-21 08:58