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国泰君安期货原油周度报告-20250921
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-21 08:58
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards single - sided trading; cross - regional spreads may widen [6][8]. - Medium - to long - term: There is significant downward pressure on oil prices. By the end of this year and the beginning of next year, Brent and WTI may test $50 per barrel, and SC may test 420 yuan per barrel [8]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overview - Global crude oil supply is complex. OPEC+ is gradually exiting production cuts, with Russia's supply affected by drone attacks, and non - OPEC+ countries showing significant supply growth [6]. - Global crude oil demand shows regional differentiation. Asia has strong demand, Europe faces seasonal decline, and the US has unexpected gasoline demand [7]. 3.2 Macro - The Fed's interest rate cut has led to a decline in the gold - oil ratio; overseas PPI has increased, and attention should be paid to inflation transmission; the RMB exchange rate has continued to strengthen, and social financing has declined [14][20][25]. 3.3 Supply - OPEC+ core members' production and export situations vary. Some countries are increasing production, while others are facing supply disruptions. For example, the UAE has increased production capacity, and Russia's exports are restricted by attacks [10][11]. - Non - OPEC+ countries also have different supply situations. The US has reached a record - high production, and Brazil's exports to China are expected to hit a record [6][11]. 3.4 Demand - Global demand shows regional differences. China's demand is supported by the agricultural and construction seasons, and new export quotas may ease domestic oversupply. Europe's demand is affected by refinery maintenance, and the US has strong gasoline demand [7]. 3.5 Inventory - US commercial inventories and Cushing region inventories have stabilized; European diesel inventories have rebounded, and gasoline inventories have decreased; domestic refined oil profit margins have declined [69][74][76]. 3.6 Price and Spread - North American basis fluctuates; monthly spreads have a slight rebound; SC is stronger than the external market, and monthly spreads have rebounded; net long positions have rebounded [80][81][84].