聚酯数据周报-20250921

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a weekly analysis of PX, PTA, and MEG in the polyester industry, covering supply, demand, valuation, and trading strategies [3][4][5] Group 2: PX Analysis Supply - The domestic PX operating rate is 86.3% (-1.5%), with Fushun Dahua's 700,000 - ton unit under maintenance for two months. Overseas, Hanwha's 1.13 - million - ton unit is planned to restart at the end of September, and ENEOS's 190,000 - ton unit has restarted. The overall Asian operating rate is 78.2% (-0.8%) [3][51] Demand - The PTA operating rate is 76.8% (unchanged), but multiple PTA units plan to undergo maintenance due to low processing fees [3][4] Valuation - PXN is maintained at $227/ton (-$5), and the PX - MX spread is $138/ton (+$11, equivalent to 1,127 yuan/ton). The PX - MX spread may remain high in the long term due to poor gasoline - blending demand [3] Strategy - Unilateral: None; Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [3] Group 3: PTA Analysis Supply - The PTA operating rate is 76.8% (unchanged), and multiple units plan to undergo maintenance due to low processing fees, with new unit commissioning postponed [4][93] Demand - The terminal demand in Jiangsu and Zhejiang textile industry has limited improvement, with high inventory pressure and slow destocking. The future order trend is weak, and there is a risk of negative feedback on polyester production [4] Valuation - The current PTA spot processing fee has recovered to 190 yuan/ton (+82), with the 11 - contract processing fee at 240 yuan/ton and the 01 - contract processing fee at 280 yuan/ton (-9) [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Weak trend; Inter - period: Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [4] Group 4: MEG Analysis Supply - The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate remains at 74.9%, with Xinjiang Tianye's 600,000 - ton unit. The coal - based operating rate is 79.4% (+2.7%). Tongliao Jinmei will undergo maintenance in mid - October, and new units are expected to increase production [5][135] Demand - The polyester industry has a mixed situation of maintenance and load - increasing, with overall load at 91.4% (-0.2%). The terminal demand in the textile industry has limited improvement, and there is a risk of weakening demand in the fourth quarter [5] Valuation - The coal - based profit has dropped to 400 yuan/ton (-70), the naphtha - based ethylene glycol profit is - 840 yuan/ton (+10), and the MTO profit is - 1030 yuan/ton (+40) [5][132] Strategy - Unilateral: Weak trend; Inter - period: 1 - 5 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long L and short MEG [5] Group 5: Production and Import Plans - In 2025, the PX production capacity will increase by 3 million tons, PTA by 6 million tons, MEG by 1 million tons, and polyester fiber by 3.05 million tons. The import volume of PX in July 2025 was 780,000 tons [7][63] Group 6: Market Trends and Risks - The overall trend of PX, PTA, and MEG is weak, mainly due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and high inventory. The main risk is policy - related risk [3][4][5]