合成橡胶周度报告-20250921

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The synthetic rubber market is under pressure but the downside space is narrowing. The butadiene market is facing increasing fundamental pressure, with supply expansion outpacing demand growth in the medium to long term [2][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Synthetic Rubber Views Supply - Shandong Weite, Taihang Yubu, and Haopu New Materials' butadiene rubber plants continued maintenance. The output of high - cis butadiene rubber was 28,000 tons, a 5.12% decrease from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 69.72%, a 3.76 - percentage - point decline [4]. Demand - In terms of rigid demand, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises fluctuated slightly. Some tire companies increased production of winter tires, but overall shipment was below expectations. Substitute demand remained high, and the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintained a year - on - year high growth rate. As of September 17, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased by 2.29% [4]. Valuation - The static valuation range of butadiene rubber futures is 11,000 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to decline. The upper limit of the fundamental valuation is 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation is 11,000 yuan/ton [4]. Viewpoint - In the short term, it is under pressure and the driving force is neutral downward, but the downside space is narrowing. The fundamentals of butadiene rubber and butadiene are under increasing pressure, mainly from high supply. The macro - environment has a limited impact on the commodity market [4]. Strategy - For single - side trading, short at high levels within the static valuation range, with an upper pressure of 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton and a lower support of 11,000 - 11,100 yuan/ton. For cross - variety trading, the nr - br spread will fluctuate in the short term [4]. 3.2 This Week's Butadiene Views Supply - The weekly output of Chinese butadiene sample enterprises was estimated to be 100,900 tons, a 2.26% decrease from the previous period. Next week, the output is expected to increase slightly to about 102,000 tons [5]. Demand - In the synthetic rubber sector, the demand for butadiene remained high. In the ABS sector, the demand was expected to be constant due to large inventory pressure. In the SBS sector, the demand remained stable [5]. Inventory - From September 11 - 17, 2025, the total domestic butadiene sample inventory decreased by 4.88% week - on - week. Although the short - term inventory decreased, there were still expectations of ship arrivals [5]. Viewpoint - In the short term, supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is neutral, with butadiene oscillating. In the medium to long term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the market is expected to enter a weak pattern [5]. 3.3 Butadiene Fundamentals Capacity - Butadiene is in a state of continuous expansion to match the growth of downstream industries, and the expansion speed and amplitude are slightly faster than those of downstream industries at certain stages. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [10][12]. Supply - Side - Operating Rate - Multiple plants were under maintenance, affecting the output. The operating rate data showed fluctuations over the years [14][15]. Net Imports - The net import volume data showed changes over the years, and the import profit was also affected by factors such as market price and import cost [16]. Demand - Side - Capacity of Downstream Products - The capacity of downstream products such as butadiene - styrene rubber and butadiene rubber continued to expand, and the operating and maintenance conditions of related plants varied [20][26]. Demand - Side - ABS and SBS Fundamentals - The ABS polymer's operating rate, net profit, and inventory data showed different trends over the years. The SBS capacity utilization rate also fluctuated [32][33]. Inventory - The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and total inventory of butadiene showed different trends over the years, and there were expectations of future inventory changes [34][35][36]. 3.4 Synthetic Rubber Fundamentals Butadiene Rubber - Supply - Output: The output and operating rate data of high - cis butadiene rubber showed changes over the years, and multiple plants had maintenance plans [40][41]. - Cost and Profit: The theoretical production cost, profit, and gross profit margin of butadiene rubber showed different trends over the years [42][43][44]. - Import and Export: The import, export, and apparent demand data of butadiene rubber showed changes over the years [45][46][47]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory, futures inventory, and trader inventory of butadiene rubber showed different trends over the years [49][50][51]. Butadiene Rubber - Demand - Tires - The inventory and operating rate data of domestic full - steel and semi - steel tires showed different trends over the years [54][55].