烧碱：弱现实但预期不悲观，PVC：区间震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1烧碱 - The current situation of caustic soda is weak, but the future expectations are not pessimistic. The market may show wide - range fluctuations. The current upward pressure on caustic soda comes from exports and alumina. Although there is an optimistic expectation of alumina production in the future, the current situation of high inventory and low profit in the alumina industry restricts the rise of caustic soda prices. Before the start of alumina production and the improvement of exports, the upward driving force is insufficient [5]. 2.2 PVC - PVC is expected to show range - bound fluctuations. The high - production and high - inventory structure of PVC is difficult to change in the medium - term. The export market is under policy interference, and the growth rate may slow down. Although there are some short - term positive factors, the overall trend still faces pressure [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint Overview 3.1.1 Caustic Soda - Supply: The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 81.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%. There are production cuts and shutdowns in Northwest, Central, East, and North China [5]. - Demand: In the alumina sector, high production and high inventory will continue to compress profits. Although the current production willingness is high, there is a problem of regional supply - demand mismatch. Non - aluminum demand has increased month - on - month, and there will be a phased peak - season restocking in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Exports have improved recently, but the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is still weak [5]. - Viewpoint: The spot price of caustic soda in Shandong is under pressure, but the optimistic expectation of alumina production in the future cannot be falsified in the short term. The futures market is in a game between reality and expectation, showing wide - range fluctuations [5]. - Valuation: The marginal device cost in Shandong is calculated to be 2,188 yuan/ton [5]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, pay attention to downstream restocking in mid - to late September and pre - production restocking of alumina after October. Do not participate in inter - period and inter - variety trading [5]. 3.1.2 PVC - Supply: The high - production structure of PVC is difficult to change in the short term. The maintenance volume is lower than that in 2023, and there will be more new capacity put into production in the future, especially in September, which will bring greater supply pressure [7]. - Demand: The competition pressure in the PVC export market has increased in 2025. Exports will still be affected by India's anti - dumping duties and BIS certification, and the growth rate of export demand may slow down in the second half of the year. Domestic demand related to the real estate industry is still weak, and enterprises' willingness to restock is low [7]. - Viewpoint: The PVC market is expected to show range - bound fluctuations. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change, and exports are subject to policy interference, so the medium - term trend still faces pressure [7]. - Valuation: The basis is weak, the month - to - month spread is weak, and the number of warehouse receipts continues to rise. The valuation is moderately high [7]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, the 01 contract has an upper pressure range of 5,000 - 5,150 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 4,800 - 4,850 yuan/ton. Do not participate in inter - period and inter - variety trading [7]. 3.2 Caustic Soda Price and Spread - Price: The price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong is about 2,500 yuan/ton. The basis of caustic soda 01 is weakening, and the 11 - 1 spread is also weakening [12][14]. - Spread: In 2025, caustic soda exports are expected to increase by at least 30% year - on - year, with annual exports possibly exceeding 4 million tons. The export market still has support, and the export profit has expanded. The regional arbitrage space between Shandong and Guangdong has increased, and the price difference between flake and liquid caustic soda is at a high level. However, the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is lower than the evaporation cost, which is negative for caustic soda [16][23][31]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Market Structure: Production is declining, and inventory is rising. The average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more is 81.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide is 378,300 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 6.02% and a year - on - year increase of 18.22% [35][36][37]. - Planned Maintenance: Pay attention to the maintenance in Shandong and Hebei in October. Many enterprises have maintenance plans, which will affect the supply of caustic soda [41]. - Capacity Expansion: In 2025, the actual capacity expansion of caustic soda will be weaker than expected, with a capacity increase of about 2 - 3%. Although there are still many new capacities planned to be put into production, considering the continuous losses in chlorine - consuming downstream industries, especially PVC, the overall production may be lower than expected [42][45]. - Profit: The weak price of liquid chlorine has led to a decline in the overall profit of caustic soda. The decline in electricity prices has a significant impact on the cost of caustic soda [46][49]. 3.4 Caustic Soda Demand - Alumina: The alumina industry is operating at a high capacity, but inventory is rising, and profits are declining. At the end of the year, the production of new alumina plants will drive up the rigid demand and inventory of caustic soda, especially the tank - filling demand before production, which will lead to a significant increase in the short - term inventory demand for caustic soda [75][81]. - Pulp: The pulp industry is experiencing continuous capacity expansion, and demand is gradually shifting to the peak season. The operating rate of the finished paper industry has increased month - on - month [83][89]. - Other Industries: The operating rate of viscose staple fiber has increased, the printing and dyeing industry has recovered, and the short - term demand has increased month - on - month. The water treatment industry has stable operations, and the output of the ternary precursor industry has increased [94][96][98]. 3.5 PVC Price and Spread - The basis of PVC fluctuates, and the 1 - 5 spread is weakly fluctuating [105]. 3.6 PVC Supply and Demand - Supply: The operating rate of PVC production enterprises has decreased month - on - month. There are still seasonal maintenance plans in September - October 2025. There will be 2.2 million tons of new PVC capacity put into production in 2025, with more concentrated production in the second half of the year [110][114][115]. - Profit: The integrated plants in the Northwest have acceptable profits. The chlor - alkali industry chain's long - term trend of using caustic soda to subsidize chlorine makes it difficult for PVC to significantly reduce production due to losses [117][119]. - Inventory: PVC production enterprises are reducing inventory, while social inventory is increasing [121]. - Demand: The terminal demand in the real estate industry has not significantly recovered, but the overall operating rate of PVC downstream industries has increased month - on - month [126][132]. - Export: The export expectation of PVC has weakened. Although the cumulative exports from January to July increased year - on - year, the future export may be affected by India's anti - dumping policy [138][141]. - Warehouse Receipts: The number of PVC warehouse receipts continues to rise [142].