动力煤产业链周度报告-20250921

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on the Thermal Coal Industry Chain [1] - Research Institute: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [2] - Date: September 21, 2025 [2] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price of thermal coal at ports has slightly rebounded. Supply has generally increased, while demand has shown a mixed trend, with power demand weakening and chemical demand rising. Inventory levels vary, and the freight index has moved upward. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Thermal Coal Fundamentals Data - Price: The spot price of thermal coal at ports has slightly rebounded [4] - Supply - Domestic: As of September 19, the output of 462 sample mines was about 39.347 million tons, a 1.7% week - on - week increase. In August 2025, the total raw coal production was 390.497 million tons, a 2% month - on - month increase and a 1.5% year - on - year decrease [6][9] - Supply - Global: The global coal port departure volume has slightly increased. The volume of coal floating to China has increased, mainly from Australia. As of September 12, the main arrival volume of thermal coal was 8.41 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 240,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 470,000 tons [11][13][16] - Demand - Power: Power demand has weakened significantly. The average daily consumption of 25 provinces this week was 5.57 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 370,000 tons and a week - on - week decrease of 70,000 tons [20][22] - Demand - Chemical: Chemical demand has rebounded month - on - month [23] - Demand - Substitute: The power generation capacity of new energy has weakened, while thermal power generation has increased year - on - year. The contribution of alternative energy has increased [32][35] - Total Demand: Power consumption demand provides obvious support, while coal consumption in construction and metallurgy has decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [38] - Inventory: As of September 19, the mine inventory of sample enterprises was 2.963 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 100,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.528 million tons. The inventory at Bohai Rim ports has slightly decreased [41][44] - Transportation: The center of the thermal coal freight index has moved upward [47]