8月国内空调产量同比增长9%，好于此前预计的同比下跌2.8%：铜行业周报（20250915-20250919）-20250921

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [6]. Core Views - The report is optimistic about the upward trend in copper prices, driven by tightening supply and improving demand in the upcoming quarters [4][6]. Supply and Demand Summary - Supply: Domestic copper social inventory increased by 3.2%, while LME copper inventory decreased by 3.2%. Domestic port copper concentrate inventory reached 725,000 tons, up 4.6% week-on-week [2][26]. - Demand: In August, domestic air conditioning production increased by 9.4% year-on-year, outperforming previous expectations of a 2.8% decline. The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a slight decrease in operating rates [3][78][97]. Price and Market Summary - Copper Prices: As of September 19, 2025, SHFE copper closed at 79,910 CNY/ton, down 1.42% from September 12, while LME copper closed at 9,997 USD/ton, down 0.71% [1][19]. - Futures Market: SHFE copper active contract positions decreased by 35%, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions increased by 11% [4][33]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends stocks such as Jincheng Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Western Mining, while suggesting to pay attention to Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].