固定收益周报：关注权益风格切换-20250921

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the growth rate of the real - sector liabilities expected to decline to around 8% by the end of the year, and the government - sector liabilities to around 12.5% [3][4][17] - After the risk - preference repair is basically in place, the equity style will gradually shift to value - dominance, and the recommended asset allocation is 60% for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, 20% for the China Securities 1000 Index, and 20% for the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF [9][24][25] - In the de - leveraging cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks and bonds favors bonds to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio and A - share portfolio are mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [10][63] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis Liabilities - The growth rate of real - sector liabilities in August 2025 was 8.9%, down from 9.1% previously, and is expected to continue to decline. The government - sector liabilities growth rate was 15.0% at the end of August, and is expected to drop to 12.5% by the end of the year [3][4][17] - Last week, the money market tightened marginally, and the stock and bond markets moved in the same direction, mainly trading on expectations of a Fed rate cut [3][7][17] Assets - The physical - quantity data in August was weaker than in July. The annual real economic growth target for 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is around 4.9%. It remains to be seen if this will be the central target for the next 1 - 2 years [5][19] 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Performance and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the money market tightened, resulting in a double - bear market for stocks and bonds. The equity style was still growth - dominant, but the cost - performance ratio slightly favored bonds [7][22][24] - After the two sessions in 2025, the trend of the national balance sheet has been more clearly judged. There have been two real - sector expansions this year, with different triggering factors [8][23] - The risk - preference repair is basically in place, and the equity style is expected to shift to value - dominance. The recommended asset allocation includes the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, the China Securities 1000 Index, and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF [9][24][25] 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market declined on heavy volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.3%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.1% and the ChiNext Index rose 2.3%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, coal, power equipment, electronics, automobiles, and machinery had the largest gains, while banking, non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, steel, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery had the largest losses [30] 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of September 19, the top five crowded industries were electronics, power equipment, machinery, computers, and automobiles, while the bottom five were beauty care, comprehensive, petroleum and petrochemicals, steel, and textile and apparel [33] - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were automobiles, machinery, household appliances, social services, and coal, while the top five with decreased crowding were non - ferrous metals, computers, pharmaceutical biology, power equipment, and non - bank finance [33] - The trading volume of the entire A - share market increased this week. Coal, building decoration, household appliances, real estate, and transportation had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume [34] 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, coal, automobiles, power equipment, electronics, and real estate had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while banking, non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, steel, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery had the smallest increases [38] - As of September 19, 2025, industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low valuations compared to history included banking, insurance, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, traditional Chinese medicine, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, and consumer electronics [39] 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - External demand generally recovered. The global manufacturing PMI rose from 49.7 to 50.9 in August, and most major economies' PMIs increased [43] - Internal demand showed mixed signals. Second - hand housing prices fell last week, and quantity indicators were mixed. The highway truck traffic volume increased, and the capacity utilization rate of ten industries decreased slightly in September after rising from May to August [43] 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the third week of September (September 15 - 19), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of September 19, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 4.18 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [58] 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the cost - performance ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and value stocks are more likely to outperform. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio and A - share portfolio mainly include stocks from industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [10][63]