纸浆周报-20250921

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pulp supply is expected to increase as there are no short - term shutdown and maintenance plans from pulp mills, and Chenming is operating at full capacity, with the output of broad - leaf pulp expected to rise gradually. Although the overseas pulp shipment volume did not significantly shrink from June to August, the arrival volume in China decreased by about 200,000 tons in August, and some shipments may arrive in September [7][8]. - The downstream pulp demand is stable. New production capacities are being put into operation, but the terminal demand is limited, resulting in stable output, gradually decreasing operating rates, and fluctuating inventories. The demand for household paper and white cardboard is entering the peak season, but the demand has not yet picked up [9][10]. - The pulp price shows a fluctuating and weak trend. The spot price is supported, but the futures price is affected by factors such as capital and old warehouse receipts, showing a fluctuating and weak trend. The prices of household paper and white cardboard are expected to rise as they enter the peak season, while the price of offset paper continues to decline during the off - season [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Part 1: Pulp Overview 1.1 Supply - side - Domestic Production: The output of domestic broad - leaf pulp and chemi - mechanical pulp increased in the week of September 19, 2025. There are no short - term shutdown and maintenance plans from pulp mills, and the output of broad - leaf pulp is expected to rise [7][8]. - Imports: In August 2025, China's pulp import volume was 2.653 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The cumulative import volume for the year was 24.108 billion tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The overseas shipment volume from June to August did not significantly shrink, but the arrival volume in China decreased in August, and some shipments may arrive in September [8]. 1.2 Demand and Inventory - side - Demand: The downstream production of household paper, offset paper, coated paper, and white cardboard was stable this week. The new production capacities are being put into operation, but the terminal demand is limited, resulting in stable output, gradually decreasing operating rates, and fluctuating inventories. The demand for household paper and white cardboard is entering the peak season, but the demand has not yet picked up [9][10]. - Inventory: The port inventory is expected to show a fluctuating and accumulating trend as the arrival volume increases and the demand remains stable. The warehouse receipt inventory is stable and shows a slight decreasing trend. The low price has led to insufficient new warehouse receipt registrations, and the pressure on old warehouse receipts is acceptable. The downstream inventory tends to fluctuate and accumulate [10]. 1.3 Price and Spread - Prices: The overseas offer prices of silver star and goldfish remained unchanged this week, while the spot prices of some pulp varieties increased slightly. The futures price shows a fluctuating and weak trend, affected by factors such as capital and old warehouse receipts. The prices of household paper and white cardboard are expected to rise as they enter the peak season, while the price of offset paper continues to decline during the off - season [11][12]. - Spreads: The needle - broad spread is expected to narrow, but the range is still limited. The futures spread shows a weakening trend, and the basis has strengthened this week [12]. 1.4 Strategy Recommendation - The spot offer price of the industrial chain is stable. From the cancellation volume of warehouse receipts in the 09 contract, the actual digestion of old warehouse receipts is limited, and the intention to resell is strong. At the same time, the macro and market sentiment is poor, and the 11 contract is under pressure and increasing positions. In the short term, it is recommended to observe whether the port inventory reduction continues and the spot transaction situation [16]. Part 2: Pulp Balance Sheet - The report provides a detailed pulp balance sheet from January 2024 to October 2025, including supply (imports, domestic production), demand (pulp consumption, other demand), and inventory (warehouse receipt inventory, port inventory) data, as well as their year - on - year and cumulative year - on - year changes [19]. Part 3: Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis 3.1 Global Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply - Global Pulp Shipment Volume: No specific data and analysis are provided in the content. - Demand and Inventory - European Apparent Demand and Inventory: No specific data and analysis are provided in the content. 3.2 Domestic Pulp Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply - side: - Pulp Imports: The report provides data on China's pulp imports from 2022 to 2025, including the import volume and cumulative import volume of bleached softwood pulp, bleached hardwood pulp, chemi - mechanical pulp, and other varieties, as well as their year - on - year changes [39][44][49]. - Pulp Imports by Country: The report provides data on the import volume and cumulative import volume of bleached softwood pulp from different countries (Russia, Chile, Canada, etc.) from 2022 to 2025, as well as their year - on - year changes [52][64][69]. - Import of Wood Chips: The report provides data on the import volume and cumulative import volume of coniferous and broad - leaf wood chips from 2022 to 2025, as well as their year - on - year changes [82][83][84]. - Demand - side: - Pulp Apparent Demand: No specific data and analysis are provided in the content. - Analysis of Downstream Finished Paper: The report provides information on the production, supply, demand, and inventory of downstream finished paper (household paper, offset paper, coated paper, white cardboard), as well as the planned production capacity and production time of new projects [93][109]. - Inventory - side: - Total Pulp Inventory: The report provides data on China's total pulp inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, and port inventory from 2022 to 2025 [156][157][158]. - Inventory by Port: The report provides data on the weekly inventory of pulp in different ports (Qingdao Port, Tianjin Port, Changshu Port, etc.) from 2022 to 2025 [163][164][166]. Part 4: Cost and Profit - Pulp Import Cost and Profit: The report provides data on the import cost and profit of pulp from 2022 to 2025 [173]. - Domestic Pulp Production Cost and Profit: The report provides data on the production cost and profit of domestic pulp from 2022 to 2025 [176]. Part 5: Pulp Price and Spread Analysis - Pulp Overseas Offer Prices: The report provides the seasonal price data of silver star, Russian needle, goldfish, etc. from 2022 to 2025 [181][186][187]. - Price Spreads: The report provides the seasonal spread data of silver star - goldfish, Russian needle - goldfish, etc. from 2022 to 2025 [189][190]. - Basis: The report provides the basis data of silver star - main contract, Russian needle - main contract from 2022 to 2025 [192][193][196]. - SP Main Contract Seasonal Chart and Inter - month Spread: The report provides the seasonal chart and inter - month spread data of the SP main contract from 2022 to 2025 [200].