黑色金属周报合集-20250921

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: Demand is tepid, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric - arc furnace production [3][6]. - Iron Ore: Supported by both macro and micro expectations, it will oscillate at a high level [3][78]. - Coking Coal and Coke: There is still fundamental support, and they will oscillate strongly [3][134]. - Ferroalloys: The fundamentals resonate with the market, and the alloys will oscillate strongly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - Macro - environment: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the domestic "anti - involution" policy has raised policy expectations [8]. - Supply and demand: In the peak season, steel supply pressure is high, and to maintain inventory stability, supply reduction and price decline are necessary. Attention should be paid to the electric - arc furnace production reduction rhythm [8]. - Profit: Steel mill profits are shrinking due to policy expectation adjustments [35][55]. Iron Ore - Supply: Australian and Brazilian shipments increased week - on - week, and the global high - frequency floating supply rebounded. The impact of the BHP partial variety ban needs further observation [80]. - Demand: Iron - making water production rose above 2.4 million tons, and port dredging volume increased due to downstream high - start and restocking demand [80][105]. - Price: Futures and spot prices oscillated at a high level [82][86]. Coking Coal and Coke - Supply: Domestic upstream production recovered rapidly after the parade, and Mongolian coal ports maintained high - volume customs clearance [137]. - Demand: Pre - holiday restocking operations have started, and spot demand support is relatively strong [135]. - Market trend: With strong supply - demand and macro - expectations, the short - term valuation will oscillate strongly [136].