HTSC·2025-09-21 11:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate development and service sectors [9][42]. Core Insights - Recent data indicates a month-on-month increase in both new and second-hand housing transactions, with new housing transaction area in 44 cities rising by 14% week-on-week [1][12]. - The inventory of new homes in 21 key cities has slightly decreased by 0.1% week-on-week, while the second-hand housing listings have increased by 0.1% compared to the previous week [1][35]. - The report highlights a recovery in transaction volumes and prices in key urban markets, suggesting potential valuation recovery for companies with resources in these areas [3]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.44%, while the real estate development sector rose by 0.71% [2]. - The report notes a year-to-date decline of 6% in new housing transaction area across 44 cities, contrasting with a 14% increase in second-hand housing transactions [1][12]. Key Companies and Dynamics - Recommended companies include: - Chengjian Development (600266 CH) with a target price of 7.42 - Greentown China (3900 HK) with a target price of 13.69 - China Overseas Development (688 HK) with a target price of 19.08 - Chengdu Investment Holdings (600649 CH) with a target price of 6.40 - Greentown Services (2869 HK) with a target price of 6.56 - Wanwu Cloud (2602 HK) with a target price of 32.29 - Link REIT (823 HK) with a target price of 50.59 - Jianfa International Group (1908 HK) with a target price of 21.60 - China Resources Land (1109 HK) with a target price of 36.45 - New Town Holdings (601155 CH) with a target price of 18.05 - China Resources Mixc Life (1209 HK) with a target price of 46.60 [3][42]. Inventory and Sales Trends - As of September 14, the inventory of new homes in 21 cities has decreased by 0.1% week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 13% [32]. - The second-hand housing listings in 20 sample cities have increased to approximately 2.484 million units, up 0.1% from the previous week and 8.7% from the end of last year [35][1]. Performance Metrics - The report indicates that the new housing sales area in 44 cities has shown a year-on-year increase of 8% from September 1 to 19, with first-tier cities seeing a 22% increase [12]. - The second-hand housing sales area in 22 cities has increased by 26% year-on-year, with first-tier cities up 35% [22].