市场生态割裂，股指动荡加剧

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index is "Volatility" [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the A-share market showed a pattern of rising and then falling, with obvious divergence in market confidence. The A-share market pricing is confusing and shows obvious characteristics of building a top at a high level. It is recommended to take appropriate profit-taking [2][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. One-week Views and Overview of Key Macroeconomic Events - Next Week's Viewpoint: Pay attention to the change in risk appetite after the Sino-US talks. It is recommended to take appropriate profit-taking due to the confusing pricing clues and obvious high-level topping characteristics in the current A-share market [2][10] - This Week's Key Events: - On September 15, an important article by the national leader will be published in Qiushi Magazine, aiming to rectify chaos in enterprise competition and government procurement [11] - On September 15, the economic data for August showed a weakening trend, with declines in consumption, industrial added value, investment, etc [12] - On September 16, 9 departments jointly issued policies to expand service consumption [13] - On September 16, the Premier of the State Council investigated new quality productivity-related fields [14] - On September 17, the Ministry of Commerce will select 50 new consumption pilot cities [15] - On September 18, it was reported that China's R & D investment intensity in 2024 exceeded the EU average [16] - On September 19, the President of China had a phone call with the President of the United States [17] - On September 19, the State Council executive meeting studied policies on implementing domestic product standards in government procurement [18] 2. One-week Market Quotes Overview - Global Stock Market Weekly Overview: From September 15 - 19, global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose. The MSCI Global Index increased by 0.99%, with emerging markets (+1.55%) > developed markets (+0.97%) > frontier markets (-0.01%). The Dutch stock market led the world with a 6.23% increase, while the Australian stock market performed the worst with a 2.17% decline [20] - Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview: During the same period, Chinese equity assets were differentiated, with Hong Kong stocks > Chinese concept stocks > A-shares. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2518.1 billion yuan, a 191.4 billion yuan increase from last week. The ChiNext Index rose 2.34%, performing the best, while the Shanghai 50 Index fell 1.98%, performing poorly [23] - Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets: Most global GICS primary industries rose this week, with the information technology industry leading (+2.47%) and the real estate industry performing poorly (-1.32%). In the Chinese market, the real estate industry led the rise (+1.94%), while the financial industry lagged (-3.90%) [27] - Weekly Overview of China's A-share CITIC Primary Industries: This week, 16 out of the A-share CITIC primary industries rose (26 last week), and 14 fell (4 last week). The coal industry led the rise (+3.59%), while the banking industry lagged the most (-4.09%) [30] - Weekly Overview of China's A-share Style: The large-cap growth style was dominant this week [34] - Overview of Futures Basis: Information on the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months is provided [37][41] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - Broad-based Index Valuation: Valuation data such as PE and PB of various broad-based indexes this week, their eight-year percentile, and changes from the beginning of the year are presented [42] - Primary Industry Valuation: Valuation data such as PE and PB of various primary industries this week, their eight-year percentile, and changes from the beginning of the year are presented [43] - Broad-based Index Equity Risk Premium: The ERP of the CSI 300 rose rapidly this week, while that of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 declined slightly [44][49] - Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast for Broad-based Indexes: The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was raised to 7.40%, and in 2026 was lowered to 8.53%. For the CSI 500, the 2025 rate was lowered to 32.14%, and the 2026 rate was raised to 18.08%. For the CSI 1000, the 2025 rate was raised to 38.54%, and the 2026 rate was lowered to 20.77% [50] 4. Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking - Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: This week, the 10-year bond yield declined, the 1-year yield rose, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 97.7, and the offshore RMB was 7.11 [56] - Trading Capital Tracking: This week, the average daily trading volume of northbound funds increased by 12 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 50.8 billion yuan [59] - Capital Inflow Tracking through ETFs: There are 29 ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 27 tracking the CSI 500, 15 tracking the CSI 1000, and 39 tracking the CSI A500. This week, the share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 600 million shares, the CSI 500 by 200 million shares, the CSI 1000 by 300 million shares, and the CSI A500 by 500 million shares [62][66] 5. Tracking of Domestic Macroeconomic High-frequency Data - Supply Side: The tire production rate rebounded slightly [69] - Consumption Side: Real estate transactions remained sluggish, but the year-on-year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales rebounded, and the crude oil price dropped to around $67 per barrel [77][87] - Inflation Observation: The prices of production materials weakened, while agricultural product prices rebounded [89]