存单周报（0915-0921）：关注季末理财回表节奏及季初增配带动-20250921

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of relatively high maturity pressure at the end of the quarter, the issuance of certificates of deposit (CDs) was relatively active this week, with an increase in long - term issuance leading to a slight lengthening of the term structure. After entering October, the maturity pressure is relatively small, and the renewal pressure may ease. - On the demand side, wealth management products remain the main support for allocation, while rural commercial banks are accelerating their reduction. With limited incremental allocation at the end of the quarter, the pricing of CDs has increased slightly. - In terms of funds, the 7D and 14D reverse repurchases at the end of the quarter may maintain relatively active placements, and the MLF may continue with a small net placement. It is expected that the risk of a tightened funds market is limited. - For CDs, with relatively active supply, constraints on funds, and limited support on the demand side, the pricing of 1 - year national and joint - stock bank CDs at the end of the quarter may fluctuate within a narrow range of 1.65 - 1.7%. After the quarter - end in October, the supply - demand pattern may ease. The key lies in the rhythm of wealth management product allocation. If there is early "grabbing for allocation" like in June and the growth of wealth management product scale in October is weaker than in April and July, the support for the CD market at the beginning of October may be relatively limited, and the 1 - year national and joint - stock bank CDs may slightly recover to around 1.6% [2][48]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Supply: Net Financing Turns Positive, and the Term Structure Lengthens - This week (September 15 - 21), the CD issuance scale was 984.41 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 134.36 billion yuan (compared with - 468.01 billion yuan from September 8 - 14). - In terms of supply structure, the issuance proportion of state - owned banks increased from 31% to 46%, while that of joint - stock banks decreased from 31% to 20%. - In terms of terms, the issuance proportion of 1 - year CDs increased from 15% to 23%. The weighted issuance term of CDs expanded to 6.40 months (previously 5.86 months). - Next week (September 22 - 28), the maturity scale will rise slightly to 968 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 117.95 billion yuan [2][5]. Demand: Wealth Management Products Are the Main Force in Secondary Allocation, and the Primary Market Subscription Rate Rises Slightly - In terms of secondary - market allocation institutions, state - owned banks and other product categories are the main forces in the secondary market, with weekly net purchases of 39.351 billion yuan and 50.213 billion yuan respectively. Money market funds changed from net selling of 21.016 billion yuan to net buying of 2.446 billion yuan. - In the primary market, the overall market subscription rate (15DMA) rose slightly to around 90%. By institution, the subscription rate of city commercial banks increased from 87% to 90%, that of joint - stock banks decreased from 94% to 93%, and that of state - owned banks increased from 82% to 85% [2][17]. Valuation: Primary - Market Pricing of CDs Increases Slightly, and Secondary - Market Yields Decline - In primary - market pricing, the central bank's supportive attitude continues. The issuance rate of 1 - year national and joint - stock bank CDs increased slightly to around 1.68%. Specifically, the rates of 3 - month and 6 - month varieties increased by 1bp compared with last week, the 1 - month variety increased by 3bp, the 9 - month variety increased by 2bp, and the 1 - year variety remained stable. - In terms of term spreads, the 1Y - 3M term spread of joint - stock banks fluctuated slightly, at the 23% historical quantile. - In terms of credit spreads, the spread between 1 - year city commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 10.27BP to 8.43BP, at around the 8% quantile, and the spread between rural commercial banks and joint - stock banks narrowed from 16.33BP to 7.19BP, close to the 11% quantile. - In the secondary market, the yields of AAA - rated CDs increased slightly. The 1 - month variety increased by 2bp compared with last week, the 3 - month, 6 - month, and 1 - year varieties increased by 1bp, and the 9 - month variety remained the same as last week. The 1Y - 3M term spread of AAA - rated CDs decreased slightly to the 24% historical quantile [2][21][29]. Comparison: The Spread between CDs and Funds Widens Slightly in Some Areas - The spread between the 1 - year AAA - rated CD yield and the 15 - day moving average of DR007 widened from 19.42BP to 19.87BP; the spread with the 15 - day moving average of R007 widened from 17.49BP to 18.63BP. - The yield of 1 - year treasury bonds decreased by 1bp, and the spread between CDs and treasury bonds widened from 27.00BP to 28.50BP, with the quantile rising to around 12%. - The spread between CDs and China Development Bank bonds narrowed from 9.20BP to 4.86BP, with the quantile dropping to 0%. - The spread between AAA - rated medium - and short - term commercial paper and CDs widened from 7.36BP to 8.54BP, with the quantile rising to 40% [35].