策略周末谈：加仓中国：外资会买什么？

Group 1 - Foreign capital is expected to increase investment in "export advantage" assets such as new energy, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals, driven by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, which typically accelerate global capital flow back to China [1][10][11] - The expansion of capital expenditure (CAPEX) in the manufacturing sector, supported by fiscal subsidies since 2019, has solidified China's global competitive advantage in high-end manufacturing, despite negatively impacting financial metrics like return on invested capital (ROIC) and free cash flow [2][16][19] - The "anti-involution" policy is anticipated to enhance the financial returns of China's manufacturing sector, with signs of improving free cash flow in some "export advantage" industries as CAPEX contracts [3][24][30] Group 2 - The Hang Seng Technology Index is expected to experience a "main rising wave" as foreign capital returns to Hong Kong stocks, driven by both southbound capital and foreign investment [4][33] - The investment strategy suggests focusing on three main lines: "hard currency" assets under globalization, "hard technology" sectors, and Chinese manufacturing benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy [5][34][37] Group 3 - The report highlights that the current market environment may lead to a phase of consolidation in A-shares, with a shift in market style towards high-quality manufacturing and technology sectors [5][34][40] - Recent economic data indicates a decline in retail sales and industrial output, suggesting potential challenges for consumer-driven sectors [51][52]