镍：冶炼累库与矿端预期博弈，镍价低位震荡不锈钢：短线供需与成本博弈，钢价震荡运行

Group 1: Overall Report Information - Report date: September 21, 2025 [1][29][59][83] - Reported commodities: Nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, palm oil, soybean oil, soybean meal, soybean, corn, sugar, cotton, pig, peanut [2] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel Core View - Nickel: The smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations are in a game, and nickel prices are oscillating at a low level [2][4] - Stainless steel: The short - term supply - demand and cost are in a game, and steel prices are oscillating [2][5] Key Points - Nickel fundamentals: The return of actual inventory accumulation and weak expectations suppresses nickel prices, but news from Indonesia increases short - selling risks. The global refined nickel inventory has increased by 9810 tons to 264382 tons this week. The surplus is mainly in the pure nickel segment, showing a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand [4] - Stainless steel fundamentals: The short - term supply - demand logic and long - term "cost - performance trading" are in a game. The demand growth rate has converged to 2.0%, and the supply growth rate has converged to 2.4%. The September production schedule is expected to increase to 345 tons, a 6% month - on - month increase [5] - Inventory changes: China's social nickel inventory increased by 144 tons to 39298 tons, and LME nickel inventory increased by 9666 tons to 225084 tons. The stainless steel social total inventory decreased by 2.51% week - on - week to 987082 tons [6][8] Group 3: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Core View - Industrial silicon: The short - term fundamentals have expectations of improvement - Polysilicon: The market sentiment has significantly cooled down [2][29] Key Points - Price trends: The industrial silicon futures price center has risen, with Xinjiang 99 - silicon at 8800 yuan/ton (a 200 - yuan increase). The polysilicon futures price has risen and then fallen, and the spot price is stable [29] - Supply - demand fundamentals: The industrial silicon industry inventory has slightly increased, and the polysilicon upstream inventory has decreased. The industrial silicon weekly production has decreased, and the downstream demand from polysilicon and organic silicon supports consumption [30][31] - Market outlook: The short - term supply - demand of industrial silicon has improved, and it is recommended to look for buying points at low prices, with the expected price range of 9000 - 9700 yuan/ton. For polysilicon, it is recommended to wait and see, with the expected price range of 48000 - 53000 yuan/ton [34][35] Group 4: Lithium Carbonate Core View - Lithium carbonate: The energy - storage demand is strong, and the price is oscillating strongly [2][59] Key Points - Price trends: The lithium carbonate futures and spot prices are running strongly. The 2511 contract closed at 73960 yuan/ton, a 2800 - yuan increase week - on - week [59] - Supply - demand fundamentals: The supply has reached a record high of 20363 tons, and the domestic energy - storage demand has exceeded expectations. The 8 - month energy - storage winning bid reached 25.8GW, a 520% year - on - year increase [60] - Market outlook: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with the futures main - contract price range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct selling hedging on inventory later [61][62][64] Group 5: Palm Oil and Soybean Oil Core View - Palm oil: The expectation of inventory accumulation in the producing areas is gradually digesting the callback pressure - Soybean oil: The Sino - US trade sentiment is fluctuating, and the price is oscillating within a range [2][83] Key Points - Palm oil: The European and American gasoline - diesel cracking spreads are at a high level, supporting the demand. The September production is expected to be 180 - 185 tons, and the inventory may hover around 230 tons. The Indian demand may be suppressed [84] - Soybean oil: The market's concern about the shortage of soybeans in the fourth quarter has eased, and the Sino - US negotiations have not effectively mentioned soybean purchases. The 01 contract decreased by 0.10% this week [83]