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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices stabilized with oscillations. The prices of LC2510 and LC2511 contracts increased by 3.9% week - on - week, and the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rose by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. The price of lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The price premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed. The stabilization of the market was due to the ongoing destocking and the fact that enterprises had not officially resumed production despite their statements. With the approaching National Day holiday, downstream enterprises started pre - holiday stocking, which provided short - term support for prices. In the fourth quarter, supply is likely to remain high while demand faces seasonal peak pressure. The balance sheet shows an average monthly destocking of 3,000 tons in September and October, followed by restocking as demand weakens seasonally. The resumption rhythm of projects will significantly affect the time point of the inventory inflection point [1][11][12]. - The expectation of project resumption puts pressure on the market, but before the actual resumption, the price decline space is limited during the peak season. After the demand inflection point appears, prices may enter a downward channel again under the year - end restocking pressure. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy, be cautious about short - selling in the short term, pay attention to position management, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term, and also focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities [2][13] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Disk Oscillation Stabilization and Pre - holiday Stocking Attention - From September 15 - 19, lithium salt prices oscillated and stabilized. The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 contracts increased by 3.9% week - on - week. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. The prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased slightly. The price premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate narrowed to 0.06 million yuan/ton [11][12]. - The market stabilized due to the strong reality of destocking and the fact that enterprises had not officially resumed production. With the approaching National Day holiday, downstream pre - holiday stocking provided short - term price support. In the fourth quarter, supply is likely to remain high while demand faces seasonal peak pressure, and the resumption rhythm of projects will affect the inventory inflection point [12]. 3.2. Weekly Industry News Review - Sigma Lithium denied the accusations of improper behavior in the Brazilian lithium project. The Brazilian Federal Prosecutor's Office (MPF) accused Sigma of ignoring inconsistencies in its 2021 Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and not consulting the local community before starting the project, and MPF called for a temporary halt to lithium research and mining projects in the relevant area on September 11 [14]. - On September 12, Zijin Mining's 3Q lithium salt lake project with an annual output of 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate was put into production in Argentina. The second - phase project with a planned capacity of 40,000 tons/year is in the pre - work stage, and the total annual capacity is expected to reach 60,000 - 80,000 tons after both phases are fully operational [14]. - At the 2025 World Energy Storage Conference on September 17, Zeng Yujun of CATL pointed out that the current intense price competition in the energy storage industry, with the price of energy storage systems dropping by about 80% in three years, has brought quality and safety risks due to cost - cutting. The price war has spread overseas this year, squeezing the gross profit of enterprises and causing the industry to face internal and external competition [15]. - Argentina exported 8,099.95 tons of lithium carbonate in August, of which 6,528 tons were exported to China [15]. 3.3. Monitoring of Key High - Frequency Data in the Industry Chain 3.3.1. Resource End: Slight Increase in Lithium Concentrate Spot Quotes - The spot price of lithium concentrate increased slightly. The spot average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 859 US dollars/ton on September 19, up 2.0% from September 12 [12]. 3.3.2. Lithium Salt: Disk Oscillation Stabilization - The prices of lithium salt futures and spot prices showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend. The closing prices of LC2510 and LC2511 contracts increased by 3.9% week - on - week, and the spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate also rose [11][12]. 3.3.3. Downstream Intermediates: Slight Decline in Quotes - The prices of downstream intermediate products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed slight changes. For example, the spot price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) increased by 0.8% week - on - week [12]. 3.3.4. Terminal: Further Increase in the Installation Proportion of Lithium Iron Phosphate in August - In August, the installation proportion of lithium iron phosphate in the terminal market further increased, reflecting changes in the market demand structure of the new energy vehicle and power battery industries [39]