Soochow Securities·2025-09-21 12:03Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-bank financial industry [1] Core Views - The fundamentals of the non-bank financial industry show a positive trend with high certainty of recovery in valuations for insurance and brokerage firms [1] Summary by Sections Non-Bank Financial Sub-Industry Performance - In the recent five trading days (September 15-19, 2025), only the diversified financial sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with diversified finance down 0.03%, securities down 3.55%, insurance down 4.80%, and the overall non-bank financial sector down 3.80% [10][11] - Year-to-date performance shows diversified finance up 11.54%, insurance up 5.74%, brokerage up 4.47%, and the overall non-bank financial sector up 5.27%, while the CSI 300 index is up 14.41% [11][12] Securities Sector - Trading volume has significantly increased year-on-year, with the average daily trading volume for September reaching CNY 28,214 billion, up 209.19% year-on-year and 7.65% month-on-month [16] - The margin trading balance as of September 18 was CNY 24,025 billion, up 75.22% year-on-year and 28.85% since the beginning of the year [16] - The average price-to-book (PB) ratio for the securities industry is projected at 1.3x for 2025, with recommendations for leading firms benefiting from active capital market policies, such as CITIC Securities and Dongfang Zhi Tong [21] Insurance Sector - The net profit of listed insurance companies showed a slight increase, with a total net profit of CNY 1,782 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [23] - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance remains high, with significant growth rates reported by major firms, driven by improved value rates due to declining interest rates and increased new premium sales [23] - The insurance sector's valuation is currently at 0.65-0.86 times the 2025E P/EV, which is considered historically low, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [27] Diversified Financial Sector - The trust industry saw its total assets reach CNY 29.56 trillion by the end of 2024, a year-on-year growth of 23.58%, although profits have significantly declined [29] - The futures market experienced a trading volume of 10.59 billion contracts in July, with a transaction value of CNY 71.31 trillion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 48.89% and 36.03% respectively [36] - The report suggests that innovation in risk management will be a key direction for the futures industry moving forward [41] Industry Ranking and Key Company Recommendations - The recommended ranking for the industry is insurance > securities > diversified finance, with key recommendations including China Ping An, New China Life, China Pacific Insurance, CITIC Securities, and Dongfang Zhi Tong [47]