前两次近似的国新办发布会对市场有何影响？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pressure on funds at the end of the quarter is relatively controllable, and the bond market may still fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to view the bond market as an oscillating range, control the duration, and allocate medium - and short - duration coupon varieties with anti - decline characteristics. Pay attention to changes in capital interest rates and institutional behavior on a daily basis and possible new policy catalysts during the week [2][22]. - The impact of the September 22nd State Council Information Office press conference is expected to be more moderate compared to the previous two. It is advisable to focus on some possible policy contents, such as the outlook for the "15th Five - Year" financial development, the introduction of incremental monetary and fiscal policies, the use of monetary policy tools like swaps for securities, funds, and insurance companies, the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market, and statements regarding the RMB exchange rate [2][22]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review Summary and Bond Market Outlook - This week, the market sentiment fluctuated greatly due to the two - time issuance of national bonds. Yields first increased, then decreased, and then increased again. The 10Y and 30Y national bond interest rates rose by 1bp and 2bp respectively. The impact of the September 22nd press conference is expected to be milder than the previous two, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate within a range [1][9][22]. - After the previous two press conferences with similar participants, the bond market first rose and then fell on the day, with the trading volume of 10Y national bond futures increasing. The stock market first soared and then declined intraday and then strengthened. After the conferences, the 10Y national bond interest rate first decreased slightly and then increased significantly, and the 10Y - 1Y national bond spread widened significantly [1][16]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Capital Situation - The central bank had a net injection, but capital interest rates increased. From September 15th to 19th, the central bank's open - market net injection was 5923 billion yuan. Next week, the maturity volume of reverse repurchases is large, and the central bank's 14 - day reverse repurchase operation and MLF roll - over are expected to support liquidity [24][25]. - R001 and DR001 increased by 10bp compared to September 12th, reaching 1.50% and 1.46% respectively. The 3M certificate of deposit issuance interest rate and the FR007 - 1Y swap interest rate first decreased and then increased. As of September 19th, the 3M national - owned and joint - stock bank bill transfer discount price was 1.25%, up 10bp from September 12th [25]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields first increased, then decreased, and then increased again. Except for the 1Y and 20Y, the interest rates of other key - term national bonds increased. Except for the 5Y - 3Y and 10Y - 7Y, the spreads of other key - term national bonds widened. As of September 19th, the 10Y and 30Y national bond yields rose by 1bp and 2bp respectively compared to September 12th, reaching 1.88% and 2.20% [32]. - The negative spread between the new and old 10Y national bond coupons widened slightly during the week, the negative spread between the new and old 10Y national development bond coupons narrowed, and the spread between the second - active and active 30Y national bond coupons narrowed [35]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - From September 15th to 19th, the median of the full - sample duration increased slightly, the median of the interest - rate bond fund duration first increased and then decreased, and the divergence continued to rise. The turnover rate of ultra - long bonds declined, the 50Y - 30Y and 30Y - 10Y national bond spreads widened, the inter - bank leverage ratio remained at 107.3%, and the exchange leverage ratio rose to 122.8%. The implied tax rate of the 10 - year national development bond narrowed slightly [40]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased. From September 15th to 19th, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was 504 billion yuan, a decrease of 66.2 billion yuan compared to last week. The net financing of national bonds and local government bonds decreased, while that of policy - based financial bonds increased [48]. - The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit turned positive, and the average issuance interest rate rose to 1.64%. From September 15th to 19th, the total issuance of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 984.4 billion yuan, a net financing of 177.6 billion yuan, and the average issuance interest rate was 1.64%, up 1.4bp from last week [53][54]. 3.3 Economic Data - In August, industrial added value and social retail sales declined marginally, and the decline in real estate investment continued to widen. Since September, second - hand housing transactions have strengthened, and the freight rate index has continued to decline marginally and is weak year - on - year [59][61]. - In terms of high - frequency data, new housing transactions have increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, second - hand housing transactions in 13 cities have increased in both aspects, and the land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities has decreased in both aspects. Automobile and movie consumption have strengthened, and export - related indicators have mixed performances. Industrial production has continued to improve marginally [61]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - US retail sales data in August were better than expected, and the Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut. Bond markets in the UK and France fell, while emerging markets rose more than they fell. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury spread widened [70][71]. 3.5 Performance of Major Asset Classes - The performance of major asset classes this week was: crude oil > rebar > CSI 1000 > US dollar > Chinese bonds > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > CSI 300 > Shanghai gold > Shanghai copper > convertible bonds > live pigs. The CSI 300 index weakened slightly this week [75]. 3.6 Policy Review - On September 19th, the State Council executive meeting discussed and passed the draft revision of the Law of the People's Republic of China on Banking Supervision and Administration and studied policies on domestic products in government procurement [79]. - On September 19th, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, and the two sides exchanged views on Sino - US relations and other issues. Follow - up attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US economic and trade consultations [80]. - On September 19th, four departments issued a notice on further standardizing several issues in intellectual property asset evaluation. On the same day, Shanghai optimized and adjusted policies on individual housing property tax pilots [81][82]. - On September 16th, nine departments issued policies to expand service consumption. On September 15th, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange issued a notice on deepening the reform of cross - border investment and financing foreign exchange management [82][83].