负债行为跟踪：谁是边际定价资金？

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the trend of strong stocks and weak bonds continued, with increased differentiation in the stock market. The trading volume of the stock market increased overall, with the ChiNext and STAR 50 leading the gains, while micro - cap stocks continued to decline with reduced volume. The technology sector remained the main theme, and the leading sectors were either previously strong or previously stagnant, possibly due to the phased game of existing funds. New marginal pricing forces have joined the market, and the preference of existing funds has changed [5]. - Leveraged funds continue to contribute incremental strength, with their industry distribution becoming more "even" and popular stocks experiencing "de - crowding". Quant funds are no longer the marginal pricing force driving the rise of micro - cap stocks. Domestic funds are shifting from popular to unpopular sectors, while foreign funds are showing an obvious inflow trend. Bank wealth management is accelerating the market through "fixed - income +" products. The investment preferences of insurance and foreign funds are changing [5][6][8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Asset Price Performance 3.1.1. Major Asset Classes - Global stock markets in most countries rose to varying degrees this week, with the US NASDAQ leading the gains. Commodity prices were differentiated, with precious metals rising and non - ferrous metals and crude oil falling. The US dollar index remained basically unchanged, while the exchange rates of the RMB, Hong Kong dollar, and New Taiwan dollar continued to strengthen. Bonds were relatively weak, with the yields of Chinese, US, and Japanese government bonds rising to varying degrees. Chinese assets performed strongly, with the Hang Seng Index rising 0.6% this week, and the RMB and Hong Kong dollar exchange rates strengthening since the end of July and early August respectively [14]. 3.1.2. A - share Market - The ChiNext (2.3%) led the gains among broad - based indices, followed by the STAR 50 (1.8%) and the Shenzhen Component Index (1.1%). The micro - cap stocks led the decline. The trading volume of micro - cap stocks decreased, and their trading volume has dropped by 31% from the August high. Medium - cap stocks continued to outperform large - cap and small - cap stocks, as indicated by the decline in the CSI 300/CSI 1000 ratio and the continuous increase in the CSI 500/CSI 1000 ratio [16][20][25]. - The top five sectors in terms of gains were automobiles (3.6%), electronics (3.4%), power equipment (3.3%), household appliances (2.3%), and machinery (2.2%). Except for electronics and power equipment, the leading sectors were previously stagnant [28]. Capital Behavior Tracking 3.2.1. Index Trends and Capital Preferences - Recently, the ChiNext, STAR 50, and CSI 300 have continued to reach new highs, while previously it was micro - cap stocks and dividend (bank) stocks. The change in index trends indicates that the investment preferences and dominant capital have changed [35]. 3.2.2. Leveraged Funds - The proportion of margin trading volume in A - share trading volume continued to rise this week, reaching a new high since 2023. Leveraged funds are flowing into industries that were previously net - sold or had low net - buying volumes in margin trading, and where the proportion of margin trading balances to market capitalization is low, such as transportation, food and beverage, banks, household appliances, and petroleum and petrochemicals. Popular stocks have shown "de - crowding", with the proportion of leveraged funds in popular stocks dropping from a high of 5.75% at the end of August to 1.86%. The net margin buying of the ChiNext and STAR 50 has significantly decreased, while that of the CSI 1000 and SSE 50 has increased significantly [37][41][44]. 3.2.3. Quant Funds - Since late August, the excess return of quant index - enhanced funds has significantly decreased, turning from positive to negative, which is almost simultaneous with the peak and decline of micro - cap stocks. The basis of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 stock index futures has widened, indicating an increase in the hedging and risk - aversion needs of quant funds [50][51][56]. 3.2.4. Main Funds - The main funds of the CSI 300 have had continuous net outflows for five days. In the past week, main funds have almost withdrawn from all industries, with significant outflows from sectors such as computers, electronics, power equipment, non - bank finance, and non - ferrous metals, and inflows into sectors such as real estate, textile and apparel, and steel on the last two trading days [59][64]. 3.2.5. North - bound Funds - The total trading volume of north - bound funds increased significantly on Thursday and Friday this week, accounting for a new high of 13.9% of A - share trading volume on Friday. After the increase in north - bound trading volume on Thursday, the SSE 50 Connect rebounded, and the average increase of heavy - position stocks of north - bound funds on Friday was higher than the weekly median [66][70]. 3.2.6. Wealth Management Fund Transfer - From January to August this year, the new non - bank deposits reached approximately 6.4 trillion yuan, with about 3 trillion yuan added in July and August. The proportion of non - bank deposits in M2 has increased, in contrast to the decline in the proportion of storage - type institutions [75]. 3.2.7. Hong Kong Stock Market - Since August, the net buying and trading volume of south - bound funds flowing into the Hong Kong stock market have increased. In the past two weeks, the total trading volume of south - bound funds and their proportion in the Hong Kong stock market turnover have rebounded. The net buying volume of south - bound funds has decreased slightly compared to last week but remains at a relatively high level. South - bound funds mainly flow into sectors such as commerce and retail, non - bank finance, and pharmaceutical biology. In the past week, the communication sector has changed from net outflows to net inflows [84][85].