南华期货烧碱数据周报：供需矛盾有限，节奏为主-20250921

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening within a certain range. The high - price caustic soda in Shandong faces downstream resistance, inventory is increasing, and the purchase price of major downstream buyers in Shandong is declining with cautious purchasing, but the futures market has already reflected this to some extent. - The supply output fluctuates normally due to maintenance. The cost remains stable, the price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises remains above 300 yuan/ton. - Non - aluminum downstream industries are generally stable, with non - aluminum rigid demand following up. - In the future, continue to pay attention to the spot price rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. Currently, the overall supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is limited, and periodic inventory replenishment and macro - expectations may affect the price rhythm [3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - According to Steel Union data, the weekly output of caustic soda this week is 818,300 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons compared to last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 81.9% (a decrease of 1.5 percentage points). According to Baichuan data, the output of liquid caustic soda is 824,200 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons compared to last week, and the output of flake caustic soda is 104,600 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons compared to last week. There are more maintenance activities this week [3]. Inventory - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, the total inventory of liquid caustic soda factories nationwide is 243,000 tons (in terms of 100% purity), a 0.4% increase compared to last week. According to Longzhong data, the in - factory inventory of liquid caustic soda (samples of fixed liquid caustic soda with 200,000 tons and above) is 378,300 wet tons, a 6.02% increase compared to last week [3]. Profit - According to Longzhong data, the average weekly gross profit of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong is 328 yuan/ton, a 1.8% decrease compared to last week. This week, the theoretical production cost of caustic soda remains stable, the price of caustic soda weakens, the average weekly price of liquid chlorine increases, and the overall profit of chlor - alkali enterprises decreases slightly [3]. Demand - Alumina: Recently, the continuous decline in the prices of domestic and overseas alumina has continuously narrowed the profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises. Except for regular maintenance, insufficient supply of domestic ores, and the impact of heavy rain, there are no signs of large - scale production cuts among domestic enterprises. Coupled with the continuous import of overseas supplies in the later period, the support for spot prices from the supply side is weak in the short term [3]. - Viscose staple fiber: The market price of viscose staple fiber has remained stable this week [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - The current spot price of caustic soda is weakening within a range. The high - price liquid caustic soda in Shandong faces downstream resistance, inventory is increasing, and the purchase price of major downstream buyers in Shandong is declining with cautious purchasing, but the futures market has already reflected this to some extent. - The supply output fluctuates normally due to maintenance. The cost remains stable, the price of liquid chlorine has increased, and the profit of chlor - alkali enterprises remains above 300 yuan/ton. - Non - aluminum downstream industries are generally stable, with non - aluminum rigid demand following up. - In the future, continue to pay attention to the spot price rhythm, the strength of the peak season, and the enthusiasm of downstream inventory replenishment. Currently, the overall supply - demand contradiction of caustic soda is limited, and periodic inventory replenishment and macro - expectations may affect the price rhythm [5]. Caustic Soda Futures Market - Futures prices: On September 19, 2025, the prices of caustic soda 05, 09, and 01 contracts are 2,723 yuan/ton, 2,734 yuan/ton, and 2,641 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 2.06%, 1.64%, and 2.36% respectively [5]. - Monthly spreads: The monthly spreads of (5 - 9), (9 - 1), and (1 - 5) are - 11, 93, and - 82 respectively, with daily changes of 11, - 17, and 6 respectively [5]. - Basis: The basis of 05, 09, and 01 contracts (Shandong Jinling) are - 317, - 328, and - 235 respectively, with daily changes of - 55, - 44, and - 61 respectively [5]. Spot Prices - 32% caustic soda: The prices of most brands in different regions remain unchanged on September 19, 2025, except for Shandong Lutai, which decreased by 2.2% [7]. - 50% caustic soda: The prices of most brands remain unchanged, except for Shandong Lutai, which decreased by 1.5% [8]. - Flake caustic soda: The market prices in different regions remain unchanged on September 19, 2025 [8]. Price Spreads - Most of the caustic soda brand/regional price spreads remain unchanged on September 19, 2025, except for the 50% caustic soda (Guangdong - Shandong), which increased by 50 yuan/ton [9].