南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报：预期反复，多空交织-20250921

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View Glass - Supply: Current daily melting is around 160,000 tons with a short - term upward expectation. Xinjiang Puyao and Zhuzhou Liling Qibin restarted production in August. Attention should be paid to unexpected supply changes and the coal - to - gas conversion of Shahe production lines [3]. - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises is 60.908 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 675,000 heavy cases (-1.10%) and a year - on - year decrease of 18.56%. The inventory days are 26 days, 0.3 days less than the previous period. Middle - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [3]. - Profit: According to Longzhong data, the profit of natural gas - fired glass production lines is - 165 yuan, coal - gas - fired is + 94 yuan, and petroleum - coke - fired is + 41 yuan [3]. - Demand: As of mid - September, the deep - processing order days are 10.5 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 2.94%. The deep - processing raw material reserve is 11.1 days, a week - on - week decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 60.87%. This week's production and sales weakened overall, especially in Shahe [3]. - Strategy: High inventories in the upper and middle reaches and weak real - world demand limit price increases. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter. The glass price currently lacks a clear trend and trading logic. The near - term supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged, and the mid - stream inventory reduction ability is weak. There are still profits in coal - gas and petroleum - coke production lines, and policy expectations are uncertain. The cumulative apparent demand from January to September is estimated to decline by 6% - 6.5%, and the spot market is in a state of weak balance to weak surplus. Future attention points include supply ignition expectations, coal prices, and mid - stream inventory reduction [3]. 纯碱 - Supply: Weekly production is 745,700 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 15,400 tons, with heavy soda down 4,000 tons and light soda down 11,400 tons). The supply remains high, and Yuanxing Phase II started the commissioning stage on September 19 [4]. - Inventory: The factory inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41,900 tons. The delivery warehouse inventory is 614,900 tons (an increase of 59,400 tons). The total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses is 2.3705 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,500 tons. The upstream soda ash plants are reducing high - level inventories [6]. - Profit: According to Longzhong data, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton joint - alkali method is - 71 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method is - 37 yuan/ton. The raw salt price remained stable this week, while the coal price increased, leading to a slight increase in the cost [6]. - Demand: The inventory of photovoltaic finished products continues to decline, and the pressure eases. The daily melting of photovoltaic glass is 88,800 tons, remaining stable. The float glass end is generally stable. In August, the export of soda ash was 215,400 tons, far exceeding expectations, a month - on - month increase of 33.6% [6]. - Strategy: Market sentiment and focus will fluctuate, increasing the volatility of soda ash. With Yuanxing Phase II starting commissioning, the long - term supply pressure of soda ash persists. The mid - and downstream of heavy and light soda ash mainly replenish inventory due to rigid demand, and the pressure on soda ash plants has eased. The long - and medium - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have further improved, and the inventory of photovoltaic glass finished products has declined to a relatively low level. The rigid demand for soda ash is stable, and there is no expectation of weakening. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. However, the export of soda ash in August exceeded 200,000 tons, which alleviates domestic pressure to some extent. High inventories in the upper and middle reaches limit the price of soda ash, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern remains unchanged [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Industry Data Futures Disk - Includes seasonal charts of the closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of the glass futures main contract [8]. Spot Data - Presents seasonal charts of Shahe delivery product prices, float glass prices in different regions (such as Central China, East China), and price differences between different regions and plate sizes [11][14][17]. Month - to - Month and Basis - Provides seasonal charts of glass futures month - to - month spreads (e.g., 05 - 09, 09 - 01) and basis of different contracts (e.g., 01, 05, 09) in different regions (such as Shahe, Hubei Yijun) [25][27][36]. Supply Data - Contains seasonal charts of float glass daily melting, weekly production, loss volume, production line start - up rate, and capacity utilization rate [40][41][45]. Production and Sales - Shows seasonal charts of glass production and sales rates on a weekly average basis in different regions (such as Shahe, Hubei, East China, South China) [48]. Deep - Processing - Presents seasonal charts of deep - processing glass raw material inventory days, deep - processing order days, and the ratio and difference between them [54]. Cost and Profit - Displays seasonal charts of the cost and profit of float glass produced by different processes (coal - fired, natural - gas - fired, petroleum - coke - fired) [58]. Import and Export - Provides seasonal charts of float glass monthly import, export, and net export volumes [62]. Statistics Bureau Data - Includes seasonal charts of the monthly output of flat glass, hollow glass, tempered glass, and laminated glass [66]. Inventory - Contains seasonal charts of float glass factory inventory, inventory in different regions (such as East China, North China, South China), and Shahe inventory (factory, dealer, and total inventory) [70][72][79]. Apparent Demand - Shows seasonal charts of float glass weekly and monthly apparent demand (with and without imports and exports) and the cumulative year - on - year change of monthly apparent demand [85]. Soda Ash Industry Data Futures Disk - Includes seasonal charts of the closing price, trading volume, and warehouse receipt quantity of the soda ash futures main contract [88]. Spot Data - Presents seasonal charts of the market price of heavy and light soda ash in different regions (such as Shahe, North China, Qinghai) and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash in different regions [92][96][101]. Month - to - Month and Basis - Provides seasonal charts of soda ash futures month - to - month spreads (e.g., 05 - 09, 09 - 01) and basis of different contracts (e.g., 01, 05, 09) in Shahe [109][111][116]. Supply Data - Contains seasonal charts of soda ash weekly production, production of heavy and light soda ash, capacity utilization rate in different regions and processes, and monthly production (weekly converted to monthly) and its cumulative value [115][117][132]. Cost and Profit - Displays seasonal charts of the cost and profit of soda ash produced by different processes (ammonia - alkali method, co - production method) [134]. Import and Export - Provides seasonal charts of soda ash monthly import, export, and net export volumes [143]. Inventory - Contains seasonal charts of soda ash factory inventory, delivery warehouse inventory, total inventory (factory + delivery warehouse), and inventory in different regions (such as North China, South China, Central China) [147][149][153]. Apparent Demand - Shows seasonal charts of soda ash weekly and monthly apparent demand (with and without imports and exports), apparent demand of light and heavy soda ash, and the number of days of outstanding orders of soda ash enterprises and raw material inventory days of glass factories [157][160][168]. Photovoltaic Glass - Presents seasonal charts of photovoltaic glass daily melting, loss volume, combined daily melting and loss volume of float and photovoltaic glass, and weekly enterprise inventory [172][173][177].