Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall operation of the lithium carbonate market this week was stable, in line with previous expectations. The news of illegal waste disposal by Xinghua Lithium Salt Co., Ltd. in Qinghai triggered concerns about environmental compliance, but it has not yet had a substantial impact on the supply - demand fundamentals. The core contradiction of lithium carbonate futures price trends in the next month will focus on supply - side factors such as the resumption of production at Jiuxiaowo, potential disruptions at Qinghai lithium salt enterprises due to environmental inspections, and market sentiment regarding the "930" node in Jiangxi, as well as demand - side factors such as the support of downstream restocking demand during the peak season [1]. - If the "930" shutdown expectation in Jiangxi is not fulfilled after the National Day holiday, some long positions in the futures market may face closing pressure, potentially suppressing prices in the short term. The evolution of demand will also significantly affect prices. If demand support persists, prices are expected to remain in a reasonable range; otherwise, prices may weaken. By the end of October, if the resumption of production at Jiuxiaowo exceeds market expectations, prices will show a weakening trend [2]. - From a national industrial policy perspective, the demand of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase month - on - month by the end of the year, which may provide phased support for lithium carbonate futures prices. It is estimated that before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices will fluctuate between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The current core contradiction in the lithium carbonate market lies in the supply - side factors such as the resumption of production at Jiuxiaowo, potential disruptions at Qinghai lithium salt enterprises due to environmental inspections, and market sentiment regarding the "930" node in Jiangxi, and demand - side factors such as the support of downstream restocking demand during the peak season [1]. - The market focus is first on the "930" shutdown expectation in Jiangxi and further environmental policies. The evolution of demand after the National Day and the resumption of production at Jiuxiaowo in late October will also be crucial for price trends [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgment: Wide - range fluctuations. The price range is 70,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton, with a low - level range of 68,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton and a high - level range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Unilateral Strategy: When the price reaches the high - level range, short positions can be established (preferably above 78,000 yuan/ton) [9]. - Basis Strategy: The basis is expected to gradually weaken [9]. - Calendar Spread Strategy: Hold the long spread of LC2511 - LC2605 and plan to exit at the end of the month [9]. - Option Strategy: Sell LC2511 - P - 70000 or put options with a strike price below 70,000 (preferably enter at a price above 1,000); hold the short position of LC2511 - C - 78000 or call options with a strike price above 78,000 (preferably enter at a price above 1,700) [9]. 1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - For lithium - battery enterprises, different hedging strategies are recommended based on different scenarios such as procurement management, sales management, and inventory management, including using futures, on - exchange/over - the - counter options, and different hedging ratios and entry price ranges [11]. Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - Positive Information: The news of illegal waste disposal by Xinghua Lithium Salt Co., Ltd. in Qinghai triggered market concerns; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will accelerate the R & D and industrialization of forward - looking technologies; Fulin精工's subsidiary received a 1.5 - billion - yuan prepayment from CATL; Ganfeng Lithium's energy - storage cell production capacity is fully utilized [12]. - Negative Information: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is researching and formulating the "15th Five - Year Plan for the Development of the New Battery Industry" to prevent low - level redundant construction [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Main Information No relevant information provided. Chapter 3: Futures and Price Data 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, lithium carbonate futures prices fluctuated widely, with a simultaneous decline in trading volume and open interest. The weighted index contract closed at 74,015 yuan/ton on Friday, up 3.84% week - on - week. The trading volume was about 492,300 lots, down 5.89% week - on - week, and the open interest was about 734,900 lots, down 3.61% week - on - week [16]. - Technical indicators suggest that the market is likely to enter a stage of fluctuating decline, but considering the support of moving averages, it is expected to maintain a wide - range consolidation pattern. The implied volatility of at - the - money options has the possibility of a phased increase [16]. - As the National Day holiday approaches, there are signs of short - position withdrawal, and investors are advised to reduce their positions [18]. - The term structure of lithium carbonate has changed from a backwardation to a contango structure, and there is a possibility of further weakening in the future [21]. - This week, the basis of the lithium carbonate main contract fluctuated. Based on historical data and spot - market fundamentals, the basis may weaken after the end of downstream restocking at the end of the month [25]. 3.2 Spot Price Data - The prices of various lithium - related products in the lithium - battery industry chain showed different trends this week, with some raw materials and products experiencing price increases, while others decreased [27]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Profit Tracking of the Upstream and Downstream of the Industrial Chain - The profits of lithium - salt enterprises that purchase lithium ore externally have been marginally weakening this week, but most enterprises still maintain a certain level of profitability due to previous hedging positions. The profits of enterprises purchasing lithium spodumene have increased, while those purchasing lithium mica have decreased, indicating a shortage of mica ore [28]. - The processing profits of lithium - iron phosphate plants and cobalt - acid lithium plants have started to strengthen this week, while the profit growth of ternary - material plants and manganese - acid lithium plants has decreased marginally, indicating an improvement in demand for lithium - iron phosphate cells [28]. 4.2 Import and Export Profits - Recently, the import profit of lithium carbonate has been decreasing marginally, which may affect future import volumes. In contrast, the export profit of lithium hydroxide has been increasing [32]. Chapter 5: Fundamental Situation 5.1 Lithium Ore Supply - Domestic Mine Production: No specific production data was provided, but charts showed the seasonal trends of domestic lithium - ore production [35]. - Overseas Mine Imports: No specific import data was provided, but charts showed the import volume of lithium concentrate by country and the monthly import volume of lithium spodumene by country [37]. - Lithium Ore Inventory: The domestic lithium - ore inventory has decreased this week, including the total available inventory, trade - merchant inventory, warehouse inventory, and port inventory [39]. 5.2 Upstream Lithium - Salt Supply - Lithium Carbonate Supply: The total production of sample enterprises this week was 20,363 tons, an increase of 2.00% week - on - week. The production of lithium carbonate from different sources such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake materials, and recycled materials also showed different trends [41]. - Lithium Carbonate Net Exports: No specific net - export data was provided, but a chart showed the seasonal trend of net exports [58]. - Lithium Carbonate Inventory: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.71% week - on - week, with a decrease in smelter inventory and an increase in downstream inventory [59]. - Lithium Hydroxide Supply: No specific production data was provided, but charts showed the monthly production of lithium hydroxide by process, total monthly production, and production by the smelting and causticizing ends, as well as the seasonal trends of production and operating rates [68]. 5.3 Mid - Stream Material Plant Supply - Material Plant Production: The production of various materials such as lithium - iron phosphate, ternary materials, cobalt - acid lithium, manganese - acid lithium, and lithium hexafluorophosphate showed different trends this week, with some increasing and some decreasing [73]. - Material Plant Inventory: No specific inventory data was provided, but charts showed the seasonal trends of the total weekly inventory of ternary materials, lithium - iron phosphate, and other materials [83]. 5.4 Downstream Cell Supply - Power Cell Production: The weekly production of power cells was 26.01 GWh, an increase of 0.08% week - on - week. The production of iron - lithium and ternary power cells also showed different trends [87]. - Consumption - Type Cell Production: No specific monthly production data was provided, but charts showed the monthly production of consumption - type cells by category and the seasonal trends of production [88]. - Lithium - Battery Installation Volume: No specific installation - volume data was provided, but charts showed the seasonal trends of the total installation volume of lithium batteries and the installation volume of power lithium batteries by vehicle type [91]. 5.5 New - Energy Vehicles - New - Energy Vehicle Production and Sales: The production and sales of new - energy vehicles showed different trends, with the weekly sales of domestic new - energy passenger vehicles increasing by 41.99% week - on - week, and the penetration rate of new - energy vehicles reaching 60.00% [95]. - New - Energy Commercial Vehicle Production: The production of new - energy commercial vehicles showed different trends, and charts showed the production volume and seasonal trends [99]. - Automobile Inventory: No specific inventory data was provided, but a chart showed the seasonal trend of the domestic automobile dealer inventory warning index [104]. 5.6 Energy Storage - The total bid - winning power and capacity of energy - storage projects showed different trends, and charts showed the total bid - winning capacity and its seasonal trend [106].
南华期货碳酸锂产业周报：把握国庆节前下游最后补库机会-20250921
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-21 12:15