南华外汇（美元兑人民币）周报：买预期，卖事实-20250921

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's next - stage core challenge is to balance the demands of different stakeholders and formulate monetary policies that align with economic fundamentals and market expectations while maintaining central bank independence. Over - betting on loose policies currently may pose potential risks. The market may continue to focus on interest - rate cut trading for the US dollar index, but the room for further development is limited, and it may shift from trading on strong expectations to trading on reality. The rebound space of the US dollar index may be limited without a significant improvement in the US labor market. The USD/CNY spot exchange rate has formed a "three - price unity" pattern around 7.10, and it may fluctuate around this level in the short term. There is no clear sign of a trend appreciation of the RMB for now [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - Last week, the overall trend of the international foreign exchange market was mainly affected by the monetary policy adjustment directions of major global central banks. The key logic was centered on the expected differences in monetary policies and the repricing of interest - rate paths. By September 19th, 16:30, the US dollar index slightly appreciated compared to the previous Friday. The on - shore RMB, offshore RMB, Japanese yen, and euro all appreciated against the US dollar, while the British pound depreciated against the US dollar [3]. - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September, with the rate range dropping to 4.75% - 5.00%. Fed Chairman Powell defined this as a "risk - management interest - rate cut" to prevent deterioration in the employment market. The dot - plot indicated two more rate cuts were likely this year [3]. - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate but had internal differences, with two of nine members advocating for a rate hike. It also announced an ETF reduction plan, signaling a move towards policy normalization [3]. - The Bank of Canada cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% for the first time since March due to slow economic growth and reduced inflation risks, without providing clear forward - looking guidance [3]. - The Bank of England kept the benchmark interest rate at 4% and adjusted its quantitative tightening plan, reducing the scale from £100 billion to £70 billion in the next 12 months and cutting long - term bond sales to minimize the impact on the bond market [3]. 3.1.2 Weekly Review of USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate - Market Trading Logic - US dollar index trading logic: At the beginning of the week, the market's high - consensus expectation of a Fed rate cut in September drove the US dollar index into a downward channel. After the official rate cut, Powell's "cautiously dovish" statement and the decline in US initial jobless claims led to a V - shaped rebound of the US dollar index [11]. - USD/CNY spot exchange rate trading logic: It moved in tandem with the US dollar index. It adjusted moderately when the US dollar index declined and strengthened when it rebounded. The "three - price unity" expectation also influenced market sentiment, with no one - sided speculation [11]. - Weekly Market Review - Before the FOMC meeting: The market's strong expectation of a Fed rate cut led to a downward movement of the US dollar index and a moderate adjustment of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate. The exchange rate converged towards the "three - price unity" target, and there was no obvious one - sided speculation [12]. - After the FOMC meeting: Powell's statement and the decline in initial jobless claims led to a rebound of the US dollar index. The USD/CNY spot exchange rate achieved "three - price unity" and entered an upward channel [12]. 3.1.3 Market Outlook - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 18th. The core issues for the market now are the Fed's future interest - rate cut rhythm and amplitude, which depend on the actual severity of the weakening US labor market, the speed of interest - rate adjustment to the neutral level, and the reasonable anchoring of the "neutral interest rate" [17][19]. - It is expected that the conditions for the Fed to implement large - scale consecutive interest - rate cuts this year are not yet mature. Such a policy is more likely to be implemented in 2026, which may face challenges. Economic factors such as the slowdown (but not a stall) in the US employment market and inflation pressure, as well as the cooling real - estate market, limit the scope for large - scale easing. Politically, although there is uncertainty, the "gradual adjustment" policy line is difficult to change in the short term [19]. 3.1.4 Strategy Recommendations - For enterprises with import and foreign - exchange purchase needs, it is advisable to use forward contracts to lock in exchange - rate costs. Export - oriented enterprises can conduct spot foreign - exchange settlement at the upper end of the exchange - rate range and carry out hedging operations for forward foreign - exchange settlement. Currently, the spread between spot and forward exchange rates is narrowing, reducing the profit - making space. Cross - market volatility arbitrage and short - straddle option combinations have better risk - return characteristics. For low - risk - preference participants, iron - condor option combinations or covered - call strategies can be preferred [27]. 3.1.5 Weekly Risk Warnings and Key Events - China will hold a press conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan" achievements in the financial industry, with PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng attending. The US will release the September Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value, August PCE data. Attention should also be paid to the speeches of overseas central - bank officials [28]. 3.2 RMB Market Observation 3.2.1 Policy Tool Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the central parity rate of the USD/CNY was 7.1128, up 109 basis points from the previous Friday. The current trend of the counter - cyclical factor indicates that the central bank's attitude towards the exchange rate is generally neutral [30]. 3.2.2 Investor Expectations and Sentiment Tracking - Enterprise Sector Expectations: In August, China's foreign - exchange market was stable, with active trading and a general balance between supply and demand. The cross - border receipts and payments of non - bank sectors increased by 8% year - on - year, and the cross - border capital inflow was $3.2 billion, with a bank settlement - sale surplus of $14.6 billion [35]. - Overseas Investor Expectations: As of last Friday, the narrowing spread between offshore and on - shore RMB indicated a slight decline in overseas investors' appreciation sentiment towards the RMB [40]. - Professional Investor Expectations: As of last Friday, the one - year NDF closing price of USD/CNH slightly decreased. The USDCNY risk - reversal option indicators (25Delta) showed little change in market sentiment [43]. 3.2.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - Hong Kong RMB Futures Market: Relevant charts show the price trends and basis differences of the HKEX USDCNH futures contracts [46][48]. - Singapore RMB Futures Market: Charts present the price trends and basis differences of the SGX USDCNH futures contracts, as well as the basis comparison between SGX and HKEX contracts [50][52]. 3.3 Key Data and Events to Watch 3.3.1 One - Week Global Key Events Review - China: High - level Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Madrid. China's economic data in August showed growth in industrial added value, service production, and consumer spending. Policy measures were introduced to expand service consumption, and relevant economic data and policy statements were released [57]. - US: The September New York Fed manufacturing index dropped sharply. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the new - home construction and initial jobless claims data were released [59]. - UK: The UK CPI remained high in August. The Bank of England kept the interest rate unchanged and adjusted the quantitative tightening plan. The UK budget deficit reached a five - year high [61]. - Eurozone: The EU proposed a new round of sanctions against Russia [62]. - Japan: Japan's exports and imports declined in August. The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate and announced an ETF and REIT reduction plan [63]. 3.3.2 One - Week Global Central - Bank Key Speeches - Speeches from central - bank officials in various countries covered topics such as the TikTok issue, Sino - US relations, and exchange - rate policies [63][65]. 3.3.3 This Week's Key Financial and Economic Data and Events - Key data to be released this week include China's central - bank loan prime rate, US economic data such as GDP deflator, PCE price index, and initial jobless claims, as well as speeches by central - bank officials from different countries [68][69]. 3.4 International Market Conditions 3.4.1 Major Countries' Exchange - Rate Quotes - Charts show the exchange - rate trends of the US dollar against major currencies such as the euro, yen, pound, and others [71][73]. 3.4.2 Correlation of Major Asset Classes - Charts display the trends of major assets including London gold, VIX, crude oil prices, stock - market indices such as S&P 500 and CSI 300, and the price differences of gold [93][100]. 3.4.3 Capital Flows - Charts present the central - bank's open - market operations, Shibor quotes, and SOFR quotes [105][107]. 3.4.4 Sino - US Interest - Rate Spread - Charts show the trends of the Sino - US interest - rate spread, 10 - year US Treasury yields, and 10 - year Chinese Treasury yields [109][110]. 3.4.5 RMB Exchange - Rate Index - The chart shows the trends of three major RMB exchange - rate indices [112]. 3.4.6 Global Economic and Trade Friction Tracking - In June 2025, the global economic and trade friction index was at a medium - high level but showed a significant easing trend. The US's tariff policies and trade - negotiation progress will mainly determine future developments. The index is high for countries like India, the US, and Brazil, and in industries such as electronics. The 19 - country (region) index for China - related economic and trade frictions is also high, but the amount involved has decreased [113][115].