美联储降息落地，金价高位震荡

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the gold industry is "Shock" [1] Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates, the gold price first experienced a pullback due to long - position profit - taking, then strengthened again. The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September, and the dot - plot shows two more expected rate cuts this year. The Fed predicts a soft landing for the economy and raises the economic growth and inflation expectations for 2026. There are increasing differences between hawks and doves in the Fed, and future long - short battles will be intense. The short - term gold price has entered a shock phase, and investors should reduce positions before China's National Day holiday [3][5] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Gold High - Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The on - shore basis (spot - futures) decreased by 0.68 yuan/gram with a change rate of 17.5%. The domestic - foreign futures price difference (domestic - foreign) decreased by 11.34 yuan/gram with a change rate of 131.5%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory increased by 4,479 kilograms with a change rate of 8.5%. The COMEX gold inventory increased by 549,045 ounces with a change rate of 1.41%. The SPDR ETF gold holding increased by 19.76 tons with a change rate of 2.03%. The CFTC gold speculative net long position decreased by 5,934 lots with a change rate of - 3.6%. The U.S. Treasury yield increased by 0.08% with a change rate of 2.0%. The U.S. 10 - year real interest rate increased by 0.04% with a change rate of 2.6% [11] 2. Financial Market - Related Data Tracking 2.1 U.S. Financial Market - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.1% to 97.6, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.13%, the S&P 500 index rose 1.2%, the U.S. overnight secured financing rate was 4.14%, the oil price fell 0.8%, the U.S. inflation expectation was 2.39%, and the real interest rate rose to 1.74%, while the gold price rose 1.2% [2][18][20][21] 2.2 Global Financial Market - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Most developed - country stock markets fell, with the S&P 500 rising 1.22%. Developing - country stock markets showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling 1.3%. U.S. and German bonds rose, with the U.S. - German yield spread at 1.38%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.71%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.65%. The euro appreciated 0.11%, the pound depreciated 0.62%, the yen depreciated 0.18%, and the Swiss franc appreciated 0.14%. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.1% to 97.6, and most non - U.S. currencies depreciated [22][25][26][28] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The gold speculative net long position slightly decreased to 160,000 lots, and the SPDR gold ETF holding increased to 995 tons. The RMB showed a shock trend, and the Shanghai gold maintained a discount. Gold and silver prices rose, and the gold - silver ratio fell to 85.5 [30][33] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: China's September LPR; Tuesday: France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the U.S. September manufacturing PMI, Japan closed for a day; Wednesday: U.S. August new home sales; Thursday: Swiss National Bank interest rate meeting, U.S. initial jobless claims, Q2 GDP final value, August durable goods orders, and existing home sales; Friday: U.S. August core PCE [34]