宏观与大类资产周报：人民币主动升值或暂告一段落-20250921

Domestic Economic Insights - Economic data from July and August indicates significant pressure on domestic demand and a slowdown in external demand, leading to an increased probability of policy adjustments in the coming month[2] - In August, fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% year-on-year, down from 1.6% in July, with infrastructure investment growth decreasing from 7.3% to 5.4%[18] - Retail sales growth in August was 3.4%, a decline from 3.7% in July, reflecting ongoing economic challenges[18] Currency and Monetary Policy - The phase of active appreciation of the RMB may be temporarily over, as the exchange rate is influenced by the prospects of Sino-U.S. and Sino-European trade talks[2] - Following the September FOMC meeting, the USD has paused its depreciation, reducing the passive appreciation pressure on the RMB[2] - The central bank's liquidity tightening during the RMB appreciation process is expected to shift back to a more abundant liquidity environment[2] International Economic Developments - The September FOMC cut interest rates by 25 basis points, with a focus on managing risks rather than responding to inflation, indicating a cautious economic outlook[17] - Upcoming Sino-U.S. talks are anticipated, with a potential meeting at APEC on October 31, and further negotiations expected before November[17] - Market volatility in overseas risk assets is expected in the coming weeks, but a bullish outlook on U.S. stocks remains[17] Market Performance Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a period of consolidation, while the Hong Kong market has seen slight gains[41] - U.S. stocks have shown a comprehensive upward trend, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 1.05% and the S&P 500 increasing by 1.22%[42] - Gold prices are fluctuating at high levels, while international crude oil prices have seen a slight decline[38]