工业硅逆势上涨，多晶硅现货坚挺

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry silicon: Volatility [5] - Polysilicon: Volatility [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose significantly this week, and the polysilicon spot price was firm. In the short - term, the industrial silicon futures are expected to have a higher probability of rising when buying at low prices, and the polysilicon futures are expected to fluctuate widely between 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [4][11][12] - Different sectors in the industrial silicon and polysilicon industry chain have different price trends and inventory situations. For example, the price of industrial silicon increased, the price of polysilicon futures fell slightly, and the prices of organic silicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also showed different trends [9][10][11] Summary According to the Directory 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon increased by 560 yuan/ton to 9305 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot East China oxygen - passed 553 increased by 150 yuan/ton to 9350 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang 99 increased by 200 yuan/ton to 8800 yuan/ton. The polysilicon PS2511 contract decreased by 910 yuan/ton to 52700 yuan/ton [9] 2. Industrial Silicon Rose Against the Trend, Polysilicon Spot was Firm - Industrial Silicon: The futures main contract rose. There were no new furnace start - ups or shutdowns this week. Southern regions may enter the dry season in late October, with Yunnan's operation dropping to over 20 units and Sichuan's to about 35 units. The social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.1 million tons. 9 - 10 months may accumulate about 50,000 tons of inventory, and 11 - 12 months may reduce about 60,000 tons, but the volume is not significant [11] - Organic Silicon: The price increased slightly. Some devices were shut down for maintenance, the weekly output was 48,600 tons, a decrease of 0.61% week - on - week, and the inventory was 45,800 tons, a decrease of 3.17% week - on - week. The price is expected to fluctuate [11] - Polysilicon: The futures main contract fluctuated and declined. The quotes of first - tier manufacturers' dense materials were 55 yuan/kg, second - and third - tier manufacturers' were 52 yuan/kg, and the new order quote of granular materials increased to 51 yuan/kg. The production limit was not fully implemented, but the sales limit started. The inventory decreased by 15,000 tons to 204,000 tons. The spot price may remain flat or increase slightly [3][12] - Silicon Wafers: Some models stabilized at new quotes. The production schedule in September was 57.5GW, an increase of 1.5GW month - on - month. The inventory was 16.87GW, an increase of 0.32GW. The price is expected to remain stable [14] - Battery Cells: The quotes increased further. The production schedule in September was 60GW, an increase of 1.8GW month - on - month. The overseas demand supported the price increase of M10 models, but the new price may be close to the limit for domestic component enterprises [14] - Components: The price remained basically stable. The inventory was 34.5GW, an increase of 0.4GW. The production schedule in September may decrease by about 1GW. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [15] 3. Investment Suggestions - Industrial Silicon: The reasons for the sharp rise in the market are not core. The cost will increase during the dry season. Buying at low prices has a higher probability of winning, but chasing high prices requires caution [4][17] - Polysilicon: The market may still bet on the progress of platform companies in September. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of selling out - of - the - money call options after the 11 - contract rebounds and the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse arbitrage opportunity [4][17] 4. Hot News Sorting - On September 16, the "Energy Consumption Quota per Unit Product of Polysilicon and Germanium" and other national standards solicited opinions, stipulating the energy consumption quota levels of polysilicon per unit product [13][18] - On September 16, GCL Technology announced a placement of 4.736 billion shares to promote the adjustment of polysilicon production capacity [18] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - Industrial Silicon: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly production, and inventory [20][23][28] - Organic Silicon: Includes data such as DMC spot prices, weekly profits, and factory inventory [30][31] - Polysilicon: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly gross profits, and factory inventory [33][37] - Silicon Wafers: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly profits, and factory inventory [38][43][45] - Battery Cells: Includes data such as spot prices, weekly profits, and overseas sales factory inventory [46][49][51] - Components: Includes data such as spot prices, factory inventory, and monthly production [54][55]