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农林牧渔周观点:猪价低迷养殖再现亏损,调控力度加码,重视生猪反内卷进程-20250921
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-09-21 13:42

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry compared to the overall market performance [3][4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" process in pig farming, suggesting that the industry is likely to accelerate capacity reduction due to both fundamental and policy-driven factors. This presents an opportunity for value reassessment of quality pig farming companies [3][4]. - The report notes that after over 16 months of profitability, the pig farming industry has entered a phase of losses again, with a significant drop in pig prices. The average selling price of pigs was reported at 12.71 yuan/kg, down 4.2% week-on-week [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the recovery of profits in the breeding industry and the continued demand for pet food, with a notable increase in net profits for tracked companies in the agricultural sector, which reached 20.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 208% [3][4]. Summary by Sections Agricultural Stock Market Performance - The Shenwan Agricultural Index fell by 2.7%, while the CSI 300 Index decreased by 0.4%. The top five gainers included Andeli and Biological Shares, both up by 9.4%, while the biggest losers included *ST Zhongji, down by 18.3% [4][11]. Pig Farming - The report indicates that the pig farming sector is facing accelerated losses, with self-breeding operations losing 24.44 yuan per head. The average price for weaned piglets dropped to 259 yuan per head, a decrease of 32 yuan week-on-week [3][4]. - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is implementing capacity control measures, aiming to reduce the breeding sow population by 1 million heads over the next six months [3][4]. Poultry Farming - The white feather broiler market continues to experience weak pricing, with the average selling price for broiler chicks at 3.10 yuan per chick, down 4.91% week-on-week. The report suggests focusing on leading companies for long-term value [3][4]. - The yellow feather broiler market is seeing a seasonal rebound, with prices for Qingjiao chicken rising significantly since June, indicating potential profitability improvements in the upcoming quarter [3][4]. Pet Food Industry - The report tracks pet food export data, noting a decline in export value to 834 million yuan in August, down 10.4% month-on-month and 15.5% year-on-year. However, the export volume increased by 3.5% year-on-year [3][4].