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债券策略周报20250921:持券过节?怎么看-20250921
Minsheng Securities·2025-09-21 13:42

Group 1 - The report discusses the need to hold bonds during the upcoming National Day holiday, emphasizing that capital gains are limited unless certain conditions are met, such as a drop in bond yields to attractive levels and improved market sentiment [1][6][34] - It highlights that the current 10-year government bond yield is around 1.8%, with potential for both upward and downward movement, but the expectation for bond profit is weak [1][6][34] - The report suggests that short-term bond strategies focusing on 1Y deposits, 1-2Y credit sinking, and 2-3Y high-grade credit are advisable, while caution is advised for 5Y and longer credits due to limited capital gain potential [2][7][35] Group 2 - The yield curve is currently steep, particularly in the medium to long-term segments, with short-term bonds expected to be more resilient against declines [2][7][35] - The report recommends maintaining a slightly lower duration in bond portfolios and suggests that investors wait for further adjustments before seeking rebound opportunities [2][7][36] - It emphasizes the importance of flexibility in portfolio management due to the weak market environment, advocating for a barbell strategy focusing on short-term deposits and higher-yielding credits [2][7][36] Group 3 - The report identifies specific bonds to focus on, including 7Y and 10Y government bonds, and suggests monitoring the liquidity of certain bonds for potential trading opportunities [3][8][9] - It notes that the current basis level for the TL2512 futures contract is relatively low, indicating that futures prices are cheaper compared to cash bonds [3][11] - The report provides a weekly review of bond market performance, indicating that long-term rates have shown weakness while mid-term rates performed slightly better [12][17]